Takaichi's Election Gamble Pays Off as LDP Secures Solo Majority

27 million votes. That's how many Japanese citizens cast their ballots early, setting a record that would define Sunday's election before polls even opened.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's political gamble has paid off spectacularly. Exit polls show her Liberal Democratic Party securing between 274-328 seats in the lower house—well above the 233 needed for a solo majority and the first time since 2021 that the LDP won't need coalition partners to govern.

Victory Despite the Storm

The numbers tell a compelling story. While heavy snowfall across Japan dampened same-day turnout to 26.01% (down 2.97 points from 2024), the record-breaking early voting surge of 27 million people—representing 26.10% of eligible voters—suggests Takaichi's message resonated long before election day.

At polling stations in Tokyo, the sentiment was clear. A 42-year-old homemaker in Koto ward explained her LDP vote: "As a woman, I strongly support Takaichi... but I'm also concerned about the rapid rise in foreign residents. The LDP is the only party capable of actually implementing changes."

Opposition Collapse Reshapes Political Landscape

The scale of opposition losses is staggering. The main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance is projected to crash from 167 seats to just 37-91 seats—a political earthquake that leaves Japan's opposition in tatters.

Meanwhile, smaller parties are gaining ground. Sanseito could jump from 2 seats to 5-14, while Team Mirai, which had no lower house presence, may secure 7-13 seats. This fragmentation suggests Japanese voters aren't just endorsing Takaichi—they're rejecting traditional opposition politics entirely.

Market and Regional Implications

Takaichi's decisive victory immediately impacts Asia's economic dynamics. Her weak yen policy advocacy throughout the campaign signals continued pressure on regional currencies and export competitiveness. South Korean giants like Samsung and Hyundai now face a Japan with renewed political stability and potentially more aggressive trade positioning.

The PM's defense spending increases and China-hawk stance also reshape regional security calculations. With a strong mandate, Takaichi can now pursue her vision of Japan as a more assertive regional power without worrying about coalition partner objections.

Her promised foreign worker restrictions will likely tighten Japan's labor market just as demographic pressures intensify—creating both opportunities and challenges for multinational companies operating across Asia.

The Real Test Begins

This wasn't just an election—it was a referendum on Japan's direction under its first female prime minister. Takaichi's combination of conservative social policies, economic nationalism, and diplomatic assertiveness has now received clear public endorsement.

But governing with a mandate differs from campaigning for one. Her weak yen policies could spark inflation concerns, while her foreign policy stance risks isolating Japan from key trading partners. The 310-seat supermajority threshold that would allow overriding upper house opposition remains within reach, potentially giving Takaichi unprecedented power to reshape Japan's constitution and international role.