Iraq 2025 Election Pro-Iran Armed Factions Gain Massive Ground in New Parliament

Eighty seats. That's the record-breaking power pro-Iran factions now hold in Iraq’s new parliament as it convenes for its first session on December 29, 2025. The political landscape in Baghdad has shifted dramatically, leaving incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in a precarious position as he attempts to navigate a fractured coalition. According to Reuters, the rise of these armed wings is set to test the limits of Iraq's sovereignty and its fragile relations with the West.

Analyzing Iraq 2025 Election Pro-Iran Armed Factions Rise

The Shia Coordination Framework (SCF), the alliance that originally nominated al-Sudani, now commands approximately 180 seats in the 329-member parliament. Within this bloc, factions close to Iran—many of which are under US sanctions—have surged from just 17 seats in 2021 to nearly half of the SCF's total strength.

This surge isn't just a domestic concern. It puts Baghdad on a potential collision course with international powers. Pro-Iran and anti-Western armed groups, long operating as state-salaried entities with political wings, have never had such a dominant voice in the government formation process. Leaders like Faleh al-Fayyad of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) and Ahmed al-Asadi are now key players in deciding the next prime minister.

The Looming Threat of Western Sanctions

Washington's reaction to these developments has been stern. Fuad Hussein, Iraq’s Foreign Minister, noted that the US has signaled it won't accept a cabinet dominated by these factions. If the next government leans too heavily toward Tehran, Iraq could face crippling measures. These might include sanctions on the State Oil Marketing Organisation (SOMO) or restricted access to US Federal Reserve funds—actions that would effectively paralyze the Iraqi state.

Historically, government formation in Iraq is a grueling process. In 2021, it took over 300 days. While the Federal Supreme Court ratified these results faster than usual, the struggle to balance the visibility of sanctioned armed groups with the need for international legitimacy could prolong the deadlock once again.