When AI Steals Jobs, Bitcoin Might Be the Winner

40%. That's how much Block, Jack Dorsey's fintech firm, just slashed its workforce this week. The reason? "AI-enabled efficiency." But here's the twist: such job cuts might actually fuel bitcoin's next rally.

The Unemployment-to-Bitcoin Pipeline

According to Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at NYDIG, bitcoin's future hinges less on technological breakthroughs and more on how AI reshapes employment, growth, and central bank policy.

The logic is straightforward but striking. If AI automation triggers mass job losses, consumer demand weakens. Falling incomes strain debt payments and pressure asset prices. Faced with economic instability, policymakers respond predictably: they cut rates and inject liquidity to stabilize the system.

That flood of money has historically been bitcoin's best friend. During the 2020 pandemic response, when central banks globally opened the monetary floodgates, bitcoin soared to nearly $60,000. The pattern isn't coincidental—bitcoin often tracks shifts in global money supply.

The Productivity Paradox

But there's another scenario, and it's less bitcoin-friendly. What if AI boosts productivity and economic growth without triggering mass unemployment? In that case, real yields could rise as economic output expands, and central banks might maintain tighter policy.

Higher real interest rates historically weigh on bitcoin by raising the opportunity cost of holding it. Why own a volatile cryptocurrency when risk-free government bonds offer attractive returns?

This isn't just theoretical. Companies like Microsoft and Google are already demonstrating how AI can enhance worker productivity rather than replace workers entirely. Their stock prices have soared—not because they're firing people, but because they're making existing employees more valuable.

History's Lessons

Past technological disruptions offer a roadmap. The steam engine displaced manual laborers. Electrification rewired industries. Personal computers eliminated typing pools and back-office staff. E-commerce hollowed out retail jobs.

Each wave sparked fears of permanent unemployment. In the early 1900s, factory mechanization triggered labor unrest. In the 1980s and 1990s, computers seemed poised to eliminate office work entirely.

Yet aggregate employment didn't collapse. New industries emerged—cloud computing, social media management, app development—jobs that were unthinkable before the internet. Productivity rose, and displaced workers eventually found new roles, even if the transition proved painful.

The Integration Pattern

Cipolaro argues AI will likely follow this historical pattern. As a general-purpose technology, it requires firms to redesign workflows and invest in complementary tools. That process tends to expand productive capacity rather than shrink it.

"The implication is not that disruption will be painless, but that the equilibrium response to new technology has historically been integration, not obsolescence," he writes.

For bitcoin, this distinction matters enormously. If AI ultimately lifts long-term growth, the structural backdrop could differ sharply from the short-term shocks that typically drive liquidity injections.

The Payments Wild Card

There's another angle worth considering: agentic payments. AI systems could eventually transact with each other without human involvement—one of bitcoin's earliest visions. Imagine AI agents automatically paying for cloud computing resources, data access, or processing power using cryptocurrency.

But the incentives aren't there yet. Credit cards bundle rewards and short-term credit, features that bitcoin and stablecoins don't match. Until that changes, widespread AI-to-AI payments remain more vision than reality.