Seven Scenarios for a US Strike on Iran: What Could Unfold

The finger is on the trigger. That's how Iran describes its readiness to respond to what appears to be an imminent US military strike. With American forces massed near Iran's borders and President Trump signaling that "time is running out," the question isn't whether targets can be predicted—they largely can. The question is what happens next.

Seven scenarios emerge from defense analysts and regional experts, each carrying vastly different implications for global stability, energy markets, and the 93 million people of Iran.

The Optimist's Dream: Surgical Success

In the most favorable scenario, US air and naval forces conduct precision strikes targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) bases, Basij paramilitary units, ballistic missile sites, and nuclear facilities. The weakened regime collapses, eventually transitioning to genuine democracy where Iran rejoins the international community.

This mirrors the hopes that accompanied interventions in Iraq and Libya. Yet both countries, despite ending brutal dictatorships, descended into years of chaos and bloodshed. Ironically, Syria—which overthrew President Bashar Al-Assad in 2024 without Western military support—has fared better in its transition.

The track record suggests optimism may be misplaced.

The Venezuelan Model: Survival Through Moderation

A second scenario envisions swift, powerful US action leaving the regime intact but forcing policy changes. Iran would curtail support for regional militias, scale back nuclear and missile programs, and ease domestic repression—essentially becoming a more manageable adversary.

Yet the Islamic Republic has remained defiant for 47 years, showing little capacity for genuine course correction. Its leadership has consistently chosen confrontation over compromise, making this outcome unlikely despite its appeal to some policymakers.

Military Rule: The Most Probable Outcome

Many analysts consider this the likeliest scenario: regime collapse followed by military government, likely composed of IRGC figures.

While the current regime faces widespread unpopularity and successive protest waves, a vast security apparatus remains invested in the status quo. Previous uprisings failed primarily because security forces didn't defect and those in power showed willingness to use unlimited brutality.

In post-strike chaos, these same security elements could seize control, potentially creating an even more militarized state.

Regional Retaliation: The Spillover Effect

Iran has vowed retaliation, and while no match for US military might, it possesses significant capacity to strike back. Ballistic missiles and drones hidden in caves and mountainsides could target US facilities across the Gulf, particularly in Bahrain and Qatar.

The 2019 attack on Saudi Aramco's facilities—attributed to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—demonstrated the vulnerability of regional infrastructure. Iran could also target nations it considers complicit, such as Jordan, dramatically expanding the conflict's scope.

Gulf Arab states, all US allies, are "understandably extremely jittery" about becoming collateral damage in a US-Iran confrontation.

Economic Warfare: Mining the Gulf

Perhaps the most economically devastating scenario involves Iran mining the Strait of Hormuz—a tactic it employed during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. This narrow waterway between Iran and Oman carries 20% of global Liquified Natural Gas exports and 20-25% of oil and petroleum products.

Iran has practiced rapid mine deployment, and execution would immediately impact global trade and energy prices. For energy-importing nations, the economic shock could be severe and immediate.

The Unthinkable: Sinking US Warships

US Navy commanders privately worry about "swarm attacks"—coordinated strikes using multiple high-explosive drones and fast torpedo boats designed to overwhelm even sophisticated defense systems. Iran's IRGC Navy has focused extensively on such asymmetric warfare tactics.

While unlikely, precedent exists: the USS Cole was crippled by an Al-Qaeda suicide attack in 2000, killing 17 sailors. In 1987, an Iraqi pilot mistakenly fired Exocet missiles at the USS Stark, killing 37. The sinking of a US warship would represent massive humiliation and potentially escalate the conflict dramatically.

Chaos and Collapse: The Regional Nightmare

The most feared scenario sees regime collapse followed by civil war, similar to Syria, Yemen, or Libya. Ethnic tensions could explode as Kurds, Baluchis, and other minorities seek to protect themselves amid national power vacuum.

While much of the Middle East would welcome the Islamic Republic's end—none more than Israel, which fears Iran's suspected nuclear program—nobody wants the region's most populous nation descending into chaos. The humanitarian and refugee crisis would be unprecedented.

Qatar and Saudi Arabia particularly dread this outcome, having witnessed similar collapses destabilize entire regions.

The Dangerous Momentum

The greatest immediate danger may be momentum itself. Having assembled overwhelming force near Iran's borders, President Trump faces pressure to act or "lose face." This dynamic—where military positioning creates its own logic for action—has historically led to conflicts with unclear objectives and unpredictable consequences.

As tensions escalate, the international community watches anxiously, knowing that the next few days could reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics for decades to come.