Gold Knocks on a 50-Year Door as Bitcoin Clings to a Critical Support Line

One asset is testing a ceiling it hasn't broken in half a century. The other is clinging to a floor that could define its future. As 2025 draws to a close, gold and Bitcoin are telling two starkly different stories for investors.

Gold's Historic Challenge

When measured against the U.S. money supply (M2SL), gold is pushing against a powerful resistance zone last seen in 2011 and the early 1970s. The last time this ceiling was decisively broken—in the late 1970s—the price of gold more than tripled to a then-record $700 an ounce.

Surging 70% this year alone, the precious metal now trades around $4,500 per ounce, a significant jump from its 2011 high of $1,800. This move signals a potential major breakout if historical patterns repeat.

Bitcoin's Make-or-Break Moment

In sharp contrast, Bitcoin, often dubbed "digital gold," is testing a crucial support level on the same money supply chart. This floor aligns with the lows seen during April's "tariff tantrum" and, importantly, marks the high of the previous cycle in March 2024.

While Bitcoin is down roughly 10% this year, supporters point out that it continues to forge new highs relative to the money supply in each cycle, suggesting its long-term trend remains intact despite the current test.