Why Epstein Files Are Toppling Britain's PM, Not Trump

When the Justice Department released millions of new Jeffrey Epstein files last week, the political earthquake hit an unexpected target. While Donald Trump remains firmly planted in the White House despite his name appearing throughout the documents, across the Atlantic, a prime minister's career hangs by a thread.

The irony is stark: Congressional Democrats who pushed for the files' release may have inadvertently delivered a fatal blow not to Trump, but to Keir Starmer, Britain's center-left leader.

The Mandelson Problem

Peter Mandelson, Starmer's pick for US ambassador, has been a Labour Party power player since the 1980s. Known as the "Prince of Darkness" during his days as Tony Blair's spin doctor, he helped architect "New Labour's" centrist transformation in the 1990s. But his reputation was never squeaky clean—this marks his third scandal-driven resignation.

The newly released files reveal Mandelson described Epstein as his "best pal" in 2003. More damaging still, he continued supporting Epstein after the financier's 2008 conviction for soliciting prostitution from a minor, even offering to leverage his political contacts on Epstein's behalf. The documents show Mandelson forwarding government emails and sensitive financial information to Epstein while serving as business secretary under Gordon Brown. Epstein sent him $75,000 in payments dating back to 2003.

Mandelson was fired as ambassador last September and resigned from both the Labour Party and House of Lords last week. He's now under police investigation.

Why This Threatens Starmer

Starmer entered this crisis already one of the least popular leaders in the Western world, with approval ratings more than 40 points underwater. Labour's 2024 election victory was less about Starmer's appeal than exhaustion with 14 years of Conservative rule marked by Brexit chaos and the scandal-plagued Boris Johnson era.

"The selling point of Labour when it was in opposition wasn't that it was going to fix everything," explains Anand Menon, professor at King's College London. "It was, 'We're going to bring some honesty and stability that was so palpably lacking under the Conservatives.'"

That promise rings hollow when you've appointed someone who forwarded government secrets to an alleged sex trafficker.

Two senior Starmer aides have already resigned over Mandelson's appointment. Anas Sarwar, leader of Scotland's Labour Party, became the most senior figure calling for Starmer's resignation. The crisis cuts to the core of the government's identity, compounding existing problems including policy u-turns and a rightward immigration shift that's angered the base without stemming the rise of the far-right Reform Party.

The American Exception

The contrast with America is striking. Howard Lutnick, Trump's Commerce Secretary, testified to Congress about having lunch on Epstein's island in 2012 after previously claiming he'd severed ties years earlier. Navy Secretary John Phelan apparently flew on Epstein's private jet in 2006. Trump himself contributes sexual innuendos in the files.

Yet none face the existential threat confronting Starmer. Why?

The substance matters: Mandelson's communications are more direct, occurred after Epstein's conviction, and tie into ongoing legal investigations. Britain's parliamentary system also makes leadership changes easier—the ruling party can simply replace its leader.

But the deeper difference lies in narrative and expectation. Starmer was elected specifically to clean up government but showed poor judgment. Trump was elected despite what voters already knew about his checkered personal and legal history.

As political historian Sir Anthony Seldon notes: "Matters of financial and sexual impropriety loom very large in the public mind in the UK, as does passing on information to foreign powers, and these factors lie behind all British scandals."

What Comes Next

Starmer's survival depends partly on Labour's arcane leadership challenge rules requiring 80 MPs' support. Potential successors include Angela Rayner, associated with the party's left wing, and Wes Streeting, the telegenic health secretary who has his own Mandelson connections.

The immediate test comes February 26 in a by-election for a Northern England seat Labour has held for 90 years. Both the far-right Reform Party and left-wing Greens are mounting strong challenges. A loss would compound calls for new leadership.

Menon sees the scandal as perfectly crafted for Reform leader Nigel Farage: "If you were Nigel Farage and you wanted to write the script for the best scandal to underline the point you're making about the corrupt elite, this would be it."