The Crown Prince Waiting for Iran's Islamic Republic to Fall

While Iranian and US diplomats negotiate in Geneva to prevent war, a 63-year-old man in Washington D.C. is quietly preparing for what he believes could be his moment—the restoration of Iran's monarchy after 40 years in exile.

The Waiting Game Ends?

Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah of Iran, has spent four decades building relationships with Western politicians and Iranian opposition groups. Since his father Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, he's maintained that he would return "if the Iranian people want it."

Now, with the Islamic Republic facing unprecedented pressure from Donald Trump's military threats, crippling sanctions, and internal unrest, opposition groups in exile sense their biggest opportunity since the revolution.

A Republic Under Siege

The numbers tell the story of Iran's crisis. The rial has lost over 80% of its value since 2018. Youth unemployment hovers around 25%. And the Mahsa Amini protests of 2022 showed the world that millions of Iranians, particularly the young, are ready to risk everything for change.

Trump's ultimatum—capitulate on nuclear weapons or face attack—has cornered the regime like never before. The Islamic Republic, which once projected strength across the Middle East through proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, now appears vulnerable at home.

The Royalist Card

For Western policymakers, the Pahlavi option presents both opportunity and dilemma. A restored monarchy could mean a pro-Western, secular Iran—a dramatic shift from 45 years of "Death to America" chants. The Shah's Iran was, after all, a key US ally and Israel's closest friend in the region.

But there's the democracy problem. How can Western nations, built on democratic principles, openly support the restoration of an absolute monarchy? The State Department maintains its official line: "The Iranian people must decide their own future."

Yet behind closed doors, some in Washington see Reza Pahlavi as potentially the most viable alternative to both the current theocracy and the chaos that might follow its collapse.

The Reality Check

The crown prince faces significant challenges. After 40 years away, he's essentially a foreigner to most Iranians under 45—which is 60% of the population. His father's rule, while modernizing, was also marked by the brutal SAVAK secret police and widespread corruption.

Morely, it's unclear how much support monarchy restoration actually has inside Iran. Polling is impossible under the current regime, and exile groups often overestimate their domestic backing. The 2022 protests, while massive, called for freedom rather than specifically for royal restoration.

The geopolitical math is equally complex. Saudi Arabia and Israel might welcome a friendlier Iran, but they'd also worry about a restored Persian empire. Russia and China, major Iranian partners, have no interest in seeing their ally replaced by a Western-aligned monarchy.

The Succession Question

Even if the Islamic Republic falls, what comes next? Iran has multiple opposition factions—secular democrats, ethnic minorities, leftist groups, and yes, monarchists. A power vacuum could lead to fragmentation rather than restoration.

Reza Pahlavi has tried to position himself as a unifying figure, supporting a transition to constitutional monarchy followed by a referendum on the form of government. But revolutions rarely follow neat scripts, and the Iranian people might have their own ideas about who should lead them.