The Conservative Exodus - When Core Beliefs Collide with Reality

24 prominent conservatives signed their names to a National Review special issue in 2016 titled "Against Trump." Today, many of those same voices have bent the knee. But some never did.

David Frum and Mona Charen represent a fascinating political species: Reagan-era conservatives who found themselves politically homeless when Trump captured their party. Their journey from the Republican establishment to the political wilderness offers a unique window into what conservatism meant—and what it's become.

The Body Snatchers Moment

Charen's political awakening came through an unlikely path. As a teenager immersed in Holocaust studies, she developed what she calls "gratitude" for American institutions—the stability, human rights protections, and democratic norms that took centuries to build. "The primary emotional response of a conservative is gratitude," she explains, "whereas the primary emotional response of a liberal is dissatisfaction, wanting to improve things."

But Trump shattered that framework. "He was the antithesis of what I regarded as conservative virtues," Charen recalls. "He encouraged people to believe that he personally, through force of will, could solve huge problems. I thought that was Caesarism."

Watching former allies gradually embrace Trump felt like Invasion of the Body Snatchers—people she respected becoming "Trumpy" one by one. "It was an ongoing process that took years, and during that time, unfortunately, I lost many friends."

The Reckoning with Race

Perhaps the most painful recalibration involved race relations. Charen had spent decades focusing on school choice, family structure, and economic policies as solutions to racial disparities. "Part of my focus was a belief that the worst days of racism were really behind us, that only really kooks and fringe figures were still old-fashioned racists in America."

Trump's rise proved otherwise. "What I saw in the last 10 years showed me that I had underestimated the degree to which naked racism persisted. It was naive of me to believe that we had conquered it."

Beliefs That Survived the Earthquake

Not everything changed. Both Frum and Charen remain committed to free markets, free trade, and fiscal discipline. The problem? "Looking for a party," Charen laughs ruefully.

The continuity between Trump's first term, Biden's presidency, and now Trump's return on trade policy particularly stings. "I recently had the experience of talking to a group of important Democrats and saying, 'I just want you all to repeat after me the words free trade,'" Frum recounts. "They can't do it."

The Jewish Dilemma

Both conservatives trace their political origins to their Jewish identity and the Holocaust's legacy. This creates a complex calculus under Trump: strong support for Israel and opposition to Iran's nuclear program, but also the mainstreaming of figures like Nick Fuentes and Tucker Carlson.

"There is a tendency all too common to say, 'Well, whatever else he may be, at least he's good for my group,'" Charen warns. "But he's for sale, so who knows if that will last. It's never about his true beliefs; it's always about what's good for him."

The Institutional Assault

Frum identifies the systematic attack on independent institutions as Trump's most dangerous legacy. The Justice Department's attempt to indict six members of Congress for making a video about lawful military orders. Trump's campaign-style speech at Fort Bragg, urging soldiers to vote for his preferred Senate candidate. The criminal investigation threats against Federal Reserve governors who won't cut interest rates fast enough.

Fortunately, some resistance remains. Senator Thom Tillis has declared he won't consider any Fed nominees until Trump ends his "sinister prosecutions" of current governors. "That's more than just a defeat," Frum notes. "That is institutional counterpoise."

The Path Forward

Charen doesn't expect to return to the Republican Party "until this whole generation dies off, and since I'm gonna die off before they do, no." But she sees potential in reverse migration—former conservatives bringing institutional skepticism to the Democratic Party, just as neoconservatives once revitalized conservatism.

"Some of those limitations on what government power can do, which are sort of our birthright as conservatives—we're suspicious of government power. Unlike liberals, who always think only of what good it can do, we're very imbued with, 'No, it can also be really, really dangerous.'"