China's Growth to Slow to 4.5% by 2026 as Property Slump Bites, Nikkei Survey Shows

China's economic engine is sputtering. A new survey shows the country's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to slow to an average of just 4.5% in 2026. According to economists surveyed by Nikkei, easing tariff headwinds aren't enough to offset the severe drag from weak domestic demand, a problem rooted in the nation's prolonged property market slump.

An Economy Propped Up by Exports

On the surface, China's economy has been shored up by its export sector this year. However, this masks a distorted internal picture. Domestic demand remains stubbornly weak as the crisis in the property market continues to crush consumer confidence. According to Reuters, this has led to a sharp slowdown in retail sales, creating a challenging environment that a government push for more investment next year may struggle to overcome.

The Lingering Shadow of the Property Crisis

The core issue identified by economists in the Nikkei survey is the real estate downturn. With a significant portion of household wealth tied up in property, the slump has a chilling effect that extends far beyond the construction industry. It's a key reason why China's consumers are now hunting for bargains and reluctant to spend without government subsidies, signaling a deep-seated lack of confidence in the future.