China's Justice Mission 2025: Erasing the Buffer Zone in the Taiwan Strait

130 aircraft sorties and 27 missiles fired in just 48 hours. China’s 'Justice Mission 2025' drills, conducted from December 29–30, 2025, weren't just another routine exercise. They marked a calculated push to normalize military presence within Taiwan’s contiguous zone—the critical 12-nautical-mile buffer beyond its territorial waters.

The Erosion of Taiwan's Contiguous Zone

For decades, this 24-nautical-mile boundary from the baseline served as a final buffer, helping both sides manage risks. However, the latest maneuvers saw 11 PLAN warships and 8 China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels crossing into this zone simultaneously. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, the destroyer Urumqi only retreated after a Taiwanese naval vessel achieved a radar lock, a move signaling imminent combat readiness.

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This normalization of activity in the contiguous zone follows a series of incremental steps. Since the 2022 visit of Nancy Pelosi, Beijing has steadily dismantled long-standing arrangements, such as the median line in the Taiwan Strait. If this latest buffer is erased, the margin for error shrinks dramatically. A drill could be mistaken for an actual attack, or an attack could be disguised as a drill until it's too late.

Global Reaction and Strategic Ambiguity

The international community's response has been mixed. U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed the incident, stating that "nothing worries me" and characterizing the drills as something China has done for 20 years. While G7 partners called for restraint, the lack of a specific focus on the contiguous zone incursions may embolden further escalations by the PLA.