Bombardier Bets on 2026 Growth Despite Trump's Tariff Threat

Can you bet on growth while staring down a tariff gun? Bombardier thinks so. The Canadian aircraft maker just forecast higher 2026 revenues, banking on a business jet recovery. But there's a catch: Trump's promised 25% tariffs on Canadian goods could blow a hole in those projections.

The Numbers Game

Bombardier's optimism isn't unfounded. The business jet market is finally shaking off its pandemic hangover. Corporate travel is back, wealthy individuals are buying private aircraft again, and the company's order book is looking healthier.

But here's where it gets interesting. Bombardier generates a massive chunk of its revenue from the U.S. market—the same market that could soon slap hefty tariffs on Canadian-made aircraft. The company's executives acknowledged this "significant risk" but offered few specifics on how they'd navigate it.

Supply Chain Roulette

The aerospace industry makes IKEA furniture look simple. A single Bombardier jet contains parts from dozens of countries: engines from the U.S., avionics from Europe, materials from Asia. This intricate web of global suppliers has been optimized over decades for efficiency and cost.

Now imagine throwing 25% tariffs into that equation. It's not just about Bombardier paying more—it's about rewiring an entire industry's DNA. Some components might become so expensive that alternative suppliers in different countries suddenly look attractive. Others might force companies to relocate production entirely.

The Adaptation Playbook

Bombardier's response? Cautious confidence. The company says it's "monitoring developments" and will "adapt as needed." Translation: they're probably war-gaming multiple scenarios behind closed doors.

This mirrors what many multinational companies are doing right now. Apple is diversifying beyond China, Tesla is building factories closer to key markets, and European automakers are reshuffling their North American operations. The question isn't whether companies will adapt—it's how quickly and at what cost.

Winners and Losers in the Tariff Game

Here's the paradox: tariffs designed to protect American jobs might end up hurting American customers. If Bombardier faces higher costs, those expenses will likely flow through to buyers—many of whom are American corporations and individuals purchasing business jets.

Meanwhile, competitors from countries not subject to tariffs could gain market share. European rival Airbus and Brazilian manufacturer Embraer might suddenly look more attractive to cost-conscious buyers.