Bank of Japan interest rate decision 2026: Rates Hold While Outlook Heats Up

The rates are staying put, but the heat is rising in Tokyo. Today, on January 23, 2026, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its short-term interest rate steady, a move that met market expectations. However, the real story lies in the central bank's updated quarterly outlook, where it revised both inflation and economic growth projections higher.

Market Impact of Bank of Japan interest rate decision 2026

According to reports from Reuters, the BoJ's decision to hike forecasts suggests that the virtuous cycle between wages and prices is gaining momentum. Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that if the economy remains on track, further rate hikes are not just possible but likely later this year. This hawkish undertone despite the hold has sent ripples through the forex markets.

Macro analysts are particularly focused on how this affects global liquidity. A stronger yen could trigger a massive unwinding of carry trades, impacting everything from U.S. Treasuries to Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency market, which often thrives on cheap global liquidity, is watching Tokyo's policy shifts with increased scrutiny.