2026 Bitcoin Price Outlook: Schwab Warns Halving Cycle May Limit Rally

The spigots are open, but the brakes are on. While global liquidity's surging and rates are dropping, Bitcoin's 2026 rally faces a historical hurdle that could cap its legendary gains.

Schwab's 2026 Bitcoin Price Outlook and Key Drivers

According to Jim Ferraioli at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, Bitcoin's outlook's a complex mix of macro tailwinds and cycle theories. As quantitative tightening ends and balance sheets expand again, the 'ultimate risk asset' should find plenty of support in a risk-on environment.

• Supportive Factors: Falling interest rates, a weaker U.S. dollar, and rising global money supply.
• Regulatory Catalyst: Potential passage of the Clarity Act could accelerate institutional adoption.

The Halving Cycle Hurdle and the AI Nexus

It's not all clear skies, though. Ferraioli notes that the third year of the halving cycle has historically been a tough one for prices. While 2026 is expected to be positive, returns will likely fall short of the historical 70% average gain from annual lows. Investors are increasingly eyeing these cycles as psychological benchmarks.

Meanwhile, the market's seeing a shift in how Bitcoin's used. Riot Platforms recently sold 1,818 BTC, netting roughly $200 million to fund their massive AI data center build-out. It shows that Bitcoin's increasingly becoming a liquid war chest for the next tech frontier.