Bitcoin's $78K Crash Signals End of Bull 'Hopium

$1.159 billion. That's how much money options traders have bet on Bitcoin falling below $75,000. Just months ago, the same crowd was certain we'd hit $100,000. Now they're preparing for pain.

Weekend Massacre Below $78K

Bitcoin's weekend plunge below $78,000 — its lowest since April — wasn't just another dip. It was a liquidity crisis meeting forced selling in a perfect storm of market mechanics. As profit-taking collided with thinning buy-side interest, derivative liquidations cascaded through the system.

The rally that once seemed unstoppable has hit a wall. Corporate demand, particularly from MicroStrategy's (MSTR) bitcoin buying sprees, has dried up according to traders who spoke with CoinDesk. Without that institutional backstop, markets became vulnerable to the kind of selling pressure we witnessed over the weekend.

Eric Crown, a former NYSE Arca options trader with over 200,000 subscribers, saw this coming. "It's been my view since end of October that BTC is in a sideways and downside phase," he told CoinDesk. "I do not think $80K is a macro low for bitcoin."

Technical Indicators Flash Red

Crown's bearish stance isn't based on gut feeling. Multiple technical indicators are painting an increasingly dark picture. The monthly MACD crossed down in November — a rare signal that has historically preceded extended downturns in previous cycles.

More concerning is the weekly 21 vs. 55 EMA crossover into bearish territory. When this pattern emerges, it typically signals multi-month losses ahead. Adding to the technical damage, the 2025 yearly chart closed as a "shooting star" — a candlestick pattern often associated with medium-term reversals.

Bitcoin's divergence from traditional markets since October tells its own story. While equities and other risk assets held up, crypto declined — a pattern Crown recognizes as "typical of late-cycle risk-off behavior." As he puts it: "People generally sell the more speculative assets first."

The $50K Question

How far could this fall go? Crown isn't calling for crypto apocalypse, but he's eyeing the mid-$50,000 to low-$60,000 zone as a potential landing spot. Crucially, he frames this not as disaster but opportunity — a "value-accumulation phase" where speculative leverage gets washed out.

The options market reflects this shift in sentiment. Put options at the $75,000 level on Deribit now carry $1.159 billion in notional open interest, nearly matching the $1.168 billion locked in $100,000 calls. It's a stark reversal from the euphoria of recent months.

Crown points to October's speculative wash-out as a key factor. The crash eliminated many leveraged altcoin positions and left traders wary of re-entering at elevated levels. "The hopium for bulls may be over," he suggests, referring to the misplaced optimism around new highs.