Bitcoin Crashes Below $63K: History Says Worse Is Coming

If you held $100,000 worth of bitcoin a week ago, you're now staring at a $7,000 loss. The world's largest cryptocurrency crashed below $63,000 during Asian trading hours, extending what's already shaping up to be its worst weekly performance this year.

The selloff isn't just numbers on a screen—it's wiping out real money from real people's portfolios at breakneck speed.

Trump's Tariff Bomb Detonates Crypto Markets

The immediate trigger? President Trump's escalating trade war rhetoric. On Monday, he announced 15% temporary tariffs on imports from other countries, up from the 10% rate he'd announced just Friday. Markets that were already jittery about his Supreme Court-backed tariff strategy went into full panic mode.

"Similar to equities, Bitcoin has had a sharp pullback today, driven largely by renewed tariff-related uncertainty," Kraken's Matt Howells-Barby told investors. He's watching the $60,000 support level like a hawk—if that breaks, bitcoin could plummet into the mid-to-low $50,000 range.

For context, that's another 20% drop from current levels. Your $100,000 bitcoin position would shrink to roughly $80,000.

The History Lesson Nobody Wants to Hear

Here's where things get uncomfortable for bitcoin bulls: history suggests this selloff might just be getting started.

Bitcoin rarely finds a lasting bottom until its 50-week moving average crosses below the 100-week average—a so-called "death cross." This pattern marked the end of every major bear market, including the brutal crashes of 2018 and 2022.

Right now, we're nowhere near that signal. The 50-week average sits well above the 100-week, which means—if past patterns hold—bitcoin could slide toward $50,000 or lower before finding its floor.

It sounds counterintuitive: why would a bearish crossover signal the end of a bear market? Because moving averages are lagging indicators. They don't predict the future—they confirm what's already happened. And in bitcoin's case, that confirmation has historically coincided with maximum despair and capitulation.

Winners, Losers, and the Retail Massacre

This crash is creating clear winners and losers. Individual investors—especially those who bought near recent highs—are getting decimated. Anyone who purchased bitcoin above $70,000 is now sitting on losses exceeding 10%.

Meanwhile, institutional players are showing mixed signals. BlackRock's bitcoin ETF continues seeing inflows, and some corporate buyers are treating the dip as a buying opportunity. MicroStrategy added 592 bitcoins last week alone, spending $39.8 million even as prices tumbled.

But here's the stark reality: Bitcoin ETFs just recorded their worst five-week outflow streak in history, bleeding $3.8 billion in investor funds. That's not the behavior of a market that's found its footing.

The AI Fear Factor

Adding fuel to the fire: artificial intelligence panic. Investors are dumping shares of companies they fear will lose the AI race, and that broader tech selloff is dragging down risk assets across the board—including crypto.

The total cryptocurrency market cap has shed nearly 7% this week, erasing roughly $140 billion in value. That's more than the entire market capitalization of Goldman Sachs.