Bitcoin's Brutal Five-Month Slide: Is This 2018 All Over Again?

Your crypto portfolio just took a 52% hit. If you're wondering whether to cut losses or double down, you're not alone—Bitcoin is careening toward its worst five-month losing streak since the 2018 bear market that wiped out dreams and portfolios alike.

The Brutal Numbers Behind the Bloodbath

Bitcoin is trading around $63,700 as February closes, marking a devastating 52% decline from October's peak. This year alone, BTC has shed more than 25%, delivering its worst first 50 days on record and setting up the first-ever back-to-back January-February decline.

The carnage extends beyond simple price action. The bitcoin-to-gold ratio has collapsed to 12.288 ounces, representing a 70% drawdown over 14 months. While gold surged 48% during the same period, Bitcoin has been left in the dust.

Meanwhile, ETF flows tell their own story: $3.8 billion has fled crypto funds over five weeks, suggesting even institutional money is heading for the exits.

Two Competing Narratives

Analysts are locked in a heated debate about what's really happening beneath Bitcoin's brutal slide.

Mati Greenspan from Quantum Economics sees something bigger than mere weakness: "What we're seeing isn't just weakness. It's repricing inside a structural regime shift." He argues that while tariffs, ETF flows, and macro fears explain the timing, they don't capture the deeper recalibration in how markets value risk assets.

On the opposite side, PrimeXBT's Jonatan Randin paints a grimmer picture: "Bitcoin doesn't have a narrative right now, and it's getting squeezed from both sides." He points to mounting macro pressure and warns that comparing current conditions to past bear markets suggests we could be "only halfway through this correction."

The Correlation Chaos

Perhaps most telling is Bitcoin's schizophrenic relationship with traditional markets. The 20-day BTC-Nasdaq correlation swung wildly from -0.68 to +0.72 between early and mid-February.

"That's not decorrelation, that's instability," Randin explains. While U.S. stocks rode AI momentum higher and gold attracted safe-haven flows, Bitcoin got left behind—suggesting it's still treated as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than digital gold.

Greenspan sees it differently: "When correlations break during regime shifts, it's usually not random. It's early repricing." If Bitcoin starts trading more like a sovereign hedge while equities remain cyclical growth plays, that divergence could be "structurally bullish."

Technical Signals Paint Mixed Picture

The technical landscape offers conflicting clues about what comes next. Bitcoin's weekly RSI has hit its lowest reading in the asset's history, while accumulator addresses have absorbed roughly 372,000 BTC since late December—typically signs of cycle bottoms.

Yet Randin cautions against premature optimism. In past downturns, similar conditions were followed by another 30-40% drop before definitive lows formed. He's watching $68,000-$72,000 as key resistance, with $60,000 as near-term support and the 200-week moving average at $58,500 as the final line of defense.