Why ASEAN Directly Blamed the US and Israel

When ASEAN foreign ministers issued their statement yesterday calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Middle East, one phrase stood out: "the escalation of conflict following the attacks initiated by Israel and the United States." For a bloc that prides itself on diplomatic neutrality and non-interference, explicitly naming the conflict's initiators was remarkably direct.

The war began Friday with US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, which has since retaliated with ballistic missiles and Shahed suicide drones targeting Israeli and American positions across the Gulf. Iranian casualties have reportedly exceeded 1,000, while six US soldiers have been confirmed killed in Iranian counterattacks.

The Economic Reality Behind Diplomatic Language

Beneath ASEAN's measured diplomatic tone lies a stark economic calculation. The Middle East supplies approximately 60% of Asia's crude oil imports, making any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz potentially catastrophic for Southeast Asian economies. Unlike the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which primarily affected energy supplies to Europe, a prolonged Middle East war could trigger supply shocks that dwarf previous disruptions.

The markets have already spoken. Yesterday saw broad selloffs across Asian exchanges, with Thailand bearing the brunt of investor anxiety. As the region's second-largest Middle Eastern crude importer (after Singapore) and top LNG importer, Thailand's Stock Exchange was forced to halt trading after an 8% morning plunge. The SET Index ultimately closed 5.6% lower—its worst performance since March 2020 and wiping out most gains from Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's February election victory.

The ripple effects extend far beyond Thailand. Singapore and Malaysia serve as regional refining hubs for Middle Eastern crude, distributing processed products throughout Southeast Asia. Myanmar's military junta yesterday announced fuel rationing for private vehicles, citing global supply chain disruptions.

The Human Dimension

ASEAN's concern isn't purely economic. The region has 2.2 million Filipino workers and 80,000 Thai nationals in the Middle East, primarily in Gulf Cooperation Council states. These workers send billions in remittances home annually—money that supports families and entire communities across Southeast Asia.

The statement's pledge to "provide emergency assistance to ASEAN nationals" reflects genuine anxiety about potential mass evacuations. Previous Middle Eastern conflicts have forced hundreds of thousands of Southeast Asian workers to flee, creating humanitarian crises and economic hardship in their home countries.

Deeper Geopolitical Calculations

ASEAN's unusually direct language reveals deeper concerns about the precedent being set. Lynn Kuok of the Brookings Institution notes that following Venezuela's presidential abduction, these actions "risk normalizing unilateral military force as a standard tool of statecraft."

This resonates particularly strongly in a region where many nations have experienced foreign intervention. The statement's emphasis on "sovereignty and territorial integrity" and "international law" reflects ASEAN's foundational principles—principles that feel increasingly under threat.

Interestingly, while Southeast Asia has significant Sunni Muslim populations, there's limited solidarity with Iran's Shia regime. However, as Kuok observes, "this will not prevent public regard for Washington or Tel Aviv from further plummeting, complicating U.S. efforts to secure regional alignment with its objectives."

The Neutrality Paradox

ASEAN's position highlights a fundamental challenge facing middle powers in an increasingly polarized world. The bloc has long prided itself on avoiding great power competition, focusing instead on economic development and regional integration. But when conflicts directly threaten member states' economic interests and citizens' safety, can true neutrality be maintained?

The careful wording of yesterday's statement—condemning the conflict's initiation while calling for restraint from all parties—represents a delicate balancing act. ASEAN wants to criticize what it sees as reckless escalation without completely alienating any major power.