Palantir's 3,000% Surge: Why Retail Investors Are Betting $8 Billion While Wall Street Stays Away

Wall Street sees a red flag, but retail investors see the next big thing. Data analytics firm Palantir has become a battleground stock in 2025, with mom-and-pop traders pouring billions into the company despite institutional warnings about its sky-high valuation. The stock has surged nearly 3,000% over the past three years.

The Retail Army's $8 Billion Bet

According to data from VandaTrack, individual investors were on track to buy nearly $8 billion worth of Palantir stock on balance in 2025. This represents a staggering 80% increase over the prior year and a more than 400% jump from 2023. The buying frenzy has made Palantir the fifth-most bought security of the year for retail traders, trailing only megacaps like Tesla and Nvidia.

Fueling this enthusiasm is the stock's performance. Shares have surged more than 150% so far in 2025, putting the company on track for its third straight year of triple-digit gains. This has crushed the S&P 500's roughly 80% gain and the Nasdaq's over 120% climb in the same period.

Wall Street's Cold Shoulder: A "Non-Starter"

In stark contrast, Wall Street remains skeptical. Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, called the stock a "non-starter" for institutional clients due to its valuation. Palantir trades at a multiple of around 450 times trailing earnings, dwarfing the S&P 500's average of close to 28. This apprehension is shared by others, including 'The Big Short' investor Michael Burry, whose fund revealed a bet against Palantir in the third quarter.

Where retail investors see a visionary company at the heart of AI and national defense, institutional money sees a stock price detached from its current financial fundamentals. This disconnect is at the core of the Palantir debate.

The Karp Effect and the Tesla Parallel

A key driver of this retail romance is CEO Alex Karp. Unlike many corporate leaders, Karp actively courts individual traders, taking their questions on earnings calls and directly addressing them in videos. This strategy has built a loyal following, drawing comparisons to Elon Musk's relationship with Tesla shareholders. Luria noted that Palantir's situation mirrors Tesla's from a decade ago, when institutions were skeptical but retail investors who believed in the long-term vision were ultimately proven right.