After a 'Perilous' 2025, Can the Philippines' Marcos Find Redemption in 2026?

An expert analysis suggests 2026 is a critical 'make-or-break' year for Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as he grapples with domestic scandals, economic pressure, and a potential Duterte comeback, while also taking the helm of ASEAN.

The Lede: A Make-or-Break Year

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is facing a pivotal 2026 after navigating a tumultuous year marked by political infighting, economic headwinds, and a cascade of scandals. According to a new analysis in Nikkei Asia, the coming year represents a 'make-or-break' moment for the embattled leader as he takes the helm of ASEAN, offering a potential path to redemption amid looming domestic threats.

A 'Flood of Scandals' in 2025

The analysis, authored by University of the Philippines senior lecturer Richard Heydarian, paints a grim picture of Marcos's 2025, suggesting he 'barely survived' the year. His administration has been dogged by a 'flood of scandals,' exacerbating tensions with the powerful political clan of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. Furthermore, the nation's judicial system has come under intense scrutiny over its handling of high-profile cases like that of death-row inmate Mary Jane Veloso, damaging its international standing.

Context: Economic Pressures

These political challenges are compounded by economic anxieties. With growth figures disappointing forecasts, the central bank has been forced to cut interest rates again, a move signaling underlying weakness in the domestic economy.

The Duterte Comeback Threat

According to Heydarian, the most significant domestic challenge for Marcos is the looming possibility of a political comeback by the Duterte faction. The once-celebrated 'UniTeam' alliance between Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte has effectively fractured, setting the stage for a major political confrontation.

"2026 is essentially Marcos' last chance to foil a Duterte comeback," the opinion piece argues, framing the upcoming year as a crucial window for the president to consolidate his power and deliver on his promises.

The ASEAN Chairmanship: A Path to Redemption?

Against this backdrop of domestic turmoil, Marcos's primary opportunity lies on the international stage. In 2026, the Philippines assumes the rotating chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The symbolic handover of the gavel from Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on October 28 in Kuala Lumpur underscored this shift. It's a chance for Marcos to project leadership on critical regional issues, from the South China Sea disputes to the crisis in Myanmar, and use that prestige to bolster his standing back home.

PRISM Insight

President Marcos's predicament is a classic example of a leader attempting to leverage foreign policy to counterbalance domestic vulnerability. His success will depend on whether the prestige of the ASEAN chairmanship can translate into tangible benefits and renewed confidence for the Filipino people. For global observers, the key question is whether his leadership will foster regional stability or be primarily a tool for political survival, a dynamic that will shape Southeast Asian geopolitics in 2026.