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Bitcoin's $70,000 'Support Gap': Data Shows Just 28 Trading Days in Key Zone
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Bitcoin's $70,000 'Support Gap': Data Shows Just 28 Trading Days in Key Zone

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An analysis of 5 years of Bitcoin CME futures and on-chain data reveals a historically weak support level in the $70,000-$80,000 range. Here's what this 'support gap' means for future price volatility.

Bitcoin has spent just 28 days trading in a critical price zone. That zone, sitting between $70,000 and $80,000, is now raising concerns among analysts due to a lack of historical support, suggesting heightened volatility could be ahead if prices retrace.

The 28-Day Gap in Market History

An analysis of the past five years of Bitcoin CME futures data from Investing.com reveals a stark disparity. Bitcoin has spent only 28 trading days in the $70,000 to $79,999 band. The range just above, from $80,000 to $89,999, saw just 49 days. In contrast, lower price zones like $30,000-$39,999 and $40,000-$49,999 saw almost 200 trading days of activity. The more time price spends in a given range, the more opportunity there is for positions to be built, which often translates into stronger support later on.

On-Chain Data Confirms the Weakness

This observation is reinforced by on-chain metrics. According to analytics firm Glassnode, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows a noticeable lack of supply concentrated between $70,000 and $80,000. This metric indicates where the current supply of bitcoin last moved, effectively showing the cost basis of holders. Both futures market and on-chain datasets point to the same conclusion: the $70k range is structurally underdeveloped.

What This Means for Investors

After pulling back from its October all-time high, bitcoin has spent most of December trading in the $80,000-$90,000 range. Should the market face another corrective phase, the weakly supported $70,000-$80,000 zone could be breached more easily than investors expect. It appears that bitcoin may need to spend more time consolidating in this region to establish a stronger structural foundation for future price movements.

This analysis suggests that the $70,000 to $80,000 range may not provide strong support in a potential market downturn. Investors should be aware of increased volatility if prices re-enter this zone.

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