Visa and Mastercard Aren't Buying the Stablecoin Hype

$25 trillion. That's how much value Bitcoin alone settled in 2025 — more than Visa ($17 trillion) and Mastercard ($11 trillion) combined. Yet the payment industry's twin giants aren't losing sleep over crypto's promise to revolutionize everyday transactions.

"We Don't See Product-Market Fit"

During earnings calls this week, both companies delivered a reality check on stablecoins' role in consumer payments. Visa CEO Ryan McInerny was particularly blunt: "In the U.S., if a consumer wants to pay for something using a digital dollar, they have ample ways to do that today. They can pay from their checking account or their savings account. It's become quite easy to do."

His conclusion? "We don't see a lot of product market fit for stablecoin payments and consumer payments in digitally developed markets."

This skepticism comes despite stablecoins' theoretical advantages. Unlike traditional payments that can take days to settle — especially across borders — stablecoin transactions clear in seconds and operate 24/7, including weekends and holidays. They promise to cut out intermediaries, moving money directly between parties on blockchain networks.

JPMorgan described stablecoins last September as "a digital, on-chain form of fiat money" that are "easy to self-custody and transact" and "fast, particularly in the context of cross-border money movement." The bank even suggested they could be "a better form than fiat" in some situations.

Cautious Experimentation, Not Transformation

Mastercard CEO Michael Miebach struck a more open tone, saying his company is "leaning in" to emerging technologies like stablecoins and AI-powered agents. But even he positioned Mastercard as an enabler rather than a disruptor.

"For us, stablecoins are another currency we can support within our network," Miebach explained. He pointed to partnerships with MetaMask, Ripple, and Gemini, but emphasized that trading — not payments — remains the dominant use case.

Both companies are dabbling in blockchain infrastructure. Mastercard is piloting on-chain identity verification and settlement tools, while Visa experiments with stablecoin settlement using USDC. But neither treats crypto as a near-term threat or opportunity to their core businesses.

That measured approach contrasts sharply with the explosive growth in onchain activity. While Bitcoin's$25 trillion includes high-frequency trading and large institutional transfers, the sheer scale reflects growing blockchain adoption across financial applications.

SoFi Takes a Different Bet

Not everyone's playing it safe. Digital bank SoFi is doubling down on crypto as part of what CEO Anthony Noto calls "moving with urgency to lead the next phase of financial services."

Despite beating Wall Street estimates in Q4, SoFi's stock dropped 5% after earnings. But the company's crypto numbers tell an interesting story: over 63,000 accounts were actively trading and holding digital assets in Q4, even though the service only became fully available in late December.

Noto frames crypto as part of a broader strategy to deliver "blockchain innovation backed by bank-grade stability and security" — positioning SoFi as a bridge between traditional finance and the crypto economy.

The Disconnect Between Volume and Adoption

Here's the puzzle: if onchain activity is already massive, why aren't payment giants more concerned? The answer lies in understanding what those transactions represent.

Much of crypto's volume comes from trading, DeFi protocols, and institutional transfers — not the small-dollar consumer payments that drive Visa and Mastercard's profits. A $100 million institutional Bitcoin transfer generates impressive volume statistics but doesn't replace a $5 coffee purchase.

JPMorgan's report also highlighted risks that explain the payment giants' caution. "The collapse of TerraUSD in May 2022 highlights just how quickly a run can occur, in an asset class that trades 24/7," analyst Joyce Ho warned.

The Real Question: Timing

The payment networks' skepticism might be rational today, but technology adoption rarely follows linear paths. Consider how Netflix dismissed streaming for years while focusing on DVD-by-mail, or how traditional taxi companies ignored Uber until it was too late.

Visa and Mastercard have built their empires on being the invisible infrastructure of commerce. They profit from every swipe, tap, and online purchase in a system that works reliably for billions of people daily. Why fix what isn't broken?

But stablecoins aren't just about speed or cost — they're about programmability. Smart contracts can automate complex payment flows, enable micro-transactions, and create new business models that traditional rails can't support.