Ukraine Bans Polymarket With No Legal Path Back
Ukraine blocked Polymarket and 200 gambling sites, but the real issue runs deeper - the country has no legal framework for Web3 prediction markets at all.
Ukraine just blocked Polymarket along with nearly 200 gambling-related websites. But the licensing excuse is just the surface—the real problem runs much deeper.
Dmitry Nikolaievskyi, chief legal officer at Ukraine's Ministry of Digital Transformation, revealed the core issue in comments to CoinDesk: "Ukrainian legislation does not contain such a concept as 'prediction markets' at all."
Caught in Legal Limbo
This isn't about missing paperwork. Ukraine literally doesn't know how to classify Web3 prediction markets. Under current law, any platform using cryptocurrency to facilitate betting on event outcomes—including Polymarket—is automatically considered an unlicensed gambling operator.
Until the long-delayed "Virtual Assets" law passes, there's no legal pathway for companies to operate crypto-based services. Individual users can trade crypto, but businesses can't build on it—a bizarre regulatory gap.
"There is currently no legal way for Web3 prediction markets to operate in Ukraine until the legislation changes," Nikolaievskyi stated flatly.
War Bets Accelerated the Crackdown
More than $270 million in war-related bets were placed on Polymarket, including markets predicting territorial captures and other conflict outcomes. For a country actively fighting for its survival, these markets crossed a red line.
Nikolaievskyi acknowledged that "war-related bets on the platform may have accelerated the decision to block it, drawing the regulator's attention." The legal grounds existed, but the war context made enforcement urgent.
Other Platforms in the Crosshairs
Kalshi and PredictIt aren't on the blocked list yet, but they're not safe. Ukraine's gambling regulator PlayCity allows anyone to file formal complaints about suspected platforms.
A single citizen report could trigger similar enforcement actions against other prediction markets currently flying under the radar. It's not a matter of if, but when.
Users Might Be Safe
Interestingly, the ban targets platforms, not users. There's currently no legal effort to pursue individuals who access Polymarket via VPNs or interact directly with smart contracts.
"I am not aware of any attempts by the state to prohibit its own citizens from interacting with decentralized protocols," Nikolaievskyi said, noting he hasn't seen examples of users being held responsible for bypassing blocks.
No Change Coming Soon
Legal reform isn't on the horizon. Any revisions to Ukraine's gambling definitions would need parliamentary approval, and "the likelihood of its revision is extremely low," especially during wartime. Ukraine has bigger priorities than defining prediction markets.
Polymarket is already restricted in over 30 countries, with Portugal being the latest to crack down. The platform's global regulatory challenges continue mounting.
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