Erdogan Rejects Israel's Recognition of Somaliland

What happens when a country of 130 million people has no access to the sea? The answer is unfolding in the Horn of Africa, where diplomatic chess moves are reshaping regional alliances.

Israel's Bold Move Sparks Regional Tensions

In December, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as an independent nation—a breakaway region that declared independence from Somalia over 30 years ago. The move sent shockwaves through the region, particularly angering Mogadishu, which still considers Somaliland part of its territory.

President Erdogan didn't mince words during his visit to Ethiopia. "The Horn of Africa should not be the battlefield of foreign forces," he declared at a joint press conference with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. "We believe that countries of the region should address their problems by themselves."

Turkey's opposition carries weight—Erdogan successfully mediated a similar dispute two years ago when Ethiopia's plans to lease Somaliland coastline for a port threatened to escalate into wider conflict.

Ethiopia's Desperate Quest for Sea Access

Behind the diplomatic rhetoric lies Ethiopia's existential challenge. When Eritrea gained independence in 1993, Ethiopia lost access to 1,350 kilometers of Red Sea coastline, becoming Africa's most populous landlocked nation.

"It is not right for a country with a population of over 130 million to be denied sea access and remain a geographical prisoner for a long time due to the conspiracy of our enemies," Abiy argued, his frustration palpable.

Currently, Ethiopia relies on Djibouti's port for 95% of its trade, creating economic vulnerability and high logistics costs. Abiy has now set his sights on Eritrea's southern port of Assab—just 60 kilometers from Ethiopia's border—and hasn't ruled out taking it by force.

Shifting Alliances and Looming Conflicts

The regional dynamics are becoming increasingly volatile. Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, which borders Eritrea, is showing signs of renewed tension. During the 2020-2022 Tigray war, Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopian troops against Tigrayan fighters. But allegiances have shifted.

Local media reports growing panic in Tigrayan cities as alleged military build-ups continue near the region. Banks have run out of cash, civil servants haven't received January salaries, and frustration is mounting—all ominous echoes of the conditions that preceded the devastating 1998-2000 border war that claimed over 100,000 lives.

Somaliland's foreign ministry, meanwhile, has urged Turkey to "refrain from inflaming regional tensions," highlighting how even non-state actors are being drawn into this complex diplomatic web.

The Broader Geopolitical Game

This isn't just about ports and recognition—it's about spheres of influence in one of the world's most strategically important regions. The Horn of Africa controls shipping lanes connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa, making it a prize worth fighting for.

Israel's recognition of Somaliland serves multiple purposes: strengthening ties with a potential ally, gaining strategic positioning near key shipping routes, and potentially countering Iranian influence in the region. Turkey's opposition reflects its own growing ambitions as a regional power broker.

Ethiopia's push for sea access, whether through diplomacy or force, could reshape the entire region's balance of power. The country's 130 million people and growing economy make it too significant to ignore, yet its landlocked status remains a critical vulnerability.

The answer may determine whether this strategic crossroads becomes a bridge for cooperation or a battlefield for competing ambitions.