Trump Taiwan Defense Reliability 2026: The Peril of Transactional Security

Can Taiwan really count on Donald Trump? It's a question haunting policymakers in Taipei and Washington alike. Trump's rhetoric, his penchant for personal diplomacy with Xi Jinping, and his framing of foreign policy as a series of trade deals are sending a dangerous signal to Beijing. According to Nikkei Asia, the former president’s unpredictability might be the biggest wildcard in the Indo-Pacific.

Trump’s Transactional Foreign Policy Risks

Derek Grossman, a professor at the University of Southern California and former RAND analyst, argues that Trump’s commitment to defending Taiwan is far from guaranteed. Unlike previous administrations that viewed Taiwan as a crucial democratic outpost, Trump often views security through a profit-and-loss lens. This shift from 'strategic ambiguity' to 'transactional uncertainty' creates a vacuum that China might be tempted to exploit.

• Personalist Diplomacy: Trump's rapport with authoritarian leaders could lead to sudden policy pivots.
• Economic Leverage: While Taiwan's exports to the US overtook China in 2025 due to AI demand, this trade surplus could become a target for Trump's tariff-heavy agenda.

Beijing’s Perception and Regional Instability

The timing couldn't be worse. In December 2025, President Lai Ching-te was seen rallying reservists, highlighting a nation on edge. Meanwhile, cyberattacks on Taiwan's infrastructure averaged 2.6 million a day in 2025. If Trump signals that US support is contingent on economic concessions, Beijing might perceive a window of opportunity for a strike, which reports suggest would come with heavy costs but high rewards for the CCP.