Trump Threatens 100% Tariff as Canada Courts China

A president threatening his closest neighbor with 100% tariffs. This is the reality of North America in 2026.

Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Saturday: strike a trade deal with China, and "all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A" will face immediate 100% tariffs. The threat came via Truth Social, where Trump notably referred to Carney as "governor" rather than prime minister—a deliberate slight reflecting his repeated suggestions that Canada should become America's 51st state.

The Davos Rupture

The escalation traces back to Carney's pointed speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he delivered what many interpreted as a direct rebuke of Trump's policies. "We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition," Carney declared, urging the world's "middle powers" to deepen cooperation against coercion and threats.

Trump's response was swift and personal. "Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements," he fired back from Davos. He also revoked Carney's invitation to join his so-called "Board of Peace."

The public spat represents more than diplomatic theater—it signals a fundamental shift in how America treats its oldest allies under Trump's second presidency.

Canada's Strategic Pivot

Carney isn't backing down. His government recently announced a "new strategic partnership" with China following high-level talks in Beijing. The deal would see China lower tariffs on Canadian canola and agricultural products in exchange for Ottawa allowing up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into the Canadian market.

"At its best, the Canada-China relationship has created massive opportunities for both our peoples," Carney stated—a remarkable declaration given the current U.S.-China tensions.

Asa McKercher, a Canada-U.S. relations expert at St. Francis Xavier University, sees this as economic pragmatism. "He's a banker, so any sort of 'diversified portfolio' lessens our risk to certain shocks," McKercher explained. "Carney senses the U.S. is a risky trade and security partner, which is not a bad assessment given that Donald Trump is threatening a trade war against America's closest allies."

The Broader Implications

Canada's courtship of China, the EU, and Qatar represents more than trade diversification—it's a template for how middle powers might navigate an increasingly multipolar world. The 200-year history of U.S.-Canadian friendship is being stress-tested by Trump's transactional approach to alliances.

For other U.S. allies, particularly in Asia and Europe, Canada's strategy offers both inspiration and warning. If America's closest neighbor can't count on stable relations with Washington, what does that mean for countries further from the U.S. sphere?

The timing is particularly significant. As Trump threatens to weaponize trade against NATO allies, traditional Western solidarity faces unprecedented strain. Canada's pivot toward China—America's primary strategic rival—represents a crossing of red lines that would have been unthinkable just years ago.

A New Playbook for Middle Powers

Carney's approach reflects a broader recalibration happening globally. Middle powers are increasingly unwilling to choose sides in great power competition, instead seeking to maximize their options through diversified partnerships.

This shift challenges fundamental assumptions about alliance structures built after World War II. If economic interests and security partnerships can be decoupled, the entire framework of Western cooperation may need rethinking.