Trump's China Gambit: Why He's Ditching Allies for Xi

While Donald Trump battles America's closest allies over Greenland, he's been courting an unlikely new friend: Communist China. This swap—trading longtime democratic partners for an authoritarian regime bent on undermining American power—represents one of the most jarring foreign policy reversals in recent memory.

From Trade War to Trade Embrace

The transformation is stark. Trump has dismantled nearly all the China tariffs that defined his first presidency. He's loosened controls on advanced semiconductor sales to China—over national security experts' objections—in exchange for Nvidia kicking back a cut of its sales to the U.S. government.

Last October's summit with Xi Jinping was branded a "G2" meeting, flattering Beijing's narrative that the U.S. and China are the world's two superpowers. On Taiwan, Trump has scaled back government interactions and reportedly asked Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi not to escalate tensions with Beijing over her comments about China's Taiwan threat.

The Rare Earth Reality Check

Trump's pivot reflects a harsh lesson from the first trade war: America's critical vulnerability in rare earth materials. China's dominance of these metals—essential for advanced manufacturing—gave Xi devastating leverage when he restricted exports in response to Trump's tariffs.

In negotiations, Xi pledged to restart rare earth supplies and temporarily suspend some export controls. But he can easily reverse these measures if tensions flare again. Trump may be buying time while seeking alternative sources in Greenland and elsewhere, but securing these commodities could take years of investment.

Political Calculations Shift

The political math has changed too. Trump's first-term China bashing appealed to blue-collar voters hurt by trade and manufacturing job losses. Now he sees greater political gains in Chinese cooperation.

The Xi summit delivered concrete wins: a crackdown on fentanyl precursor exports and promises to buy American soybeans—crucial for Republican farm constituencies. The TikTok deal, finalized this month, hands U.S. operations to a consortium including Trump ally Larry Ellison'sOracle, fulfilling a key campaign promise.

Xi sweetened the relationship further by inviting Trump to Beijing in April, appealing to the president's love of high-profile diplomatic theater.

The Strongman Preference

Trump has always gravitated toward autocrats. He calls Xi "highly respected"—the same praise he's lavished on Viktor Orbán, Vladimir Putin, and other strongmen. His diplomacy consistently favors authoritarian leaders over trustworthy democratic allies.

Like any bully, Trump typically picks on those who can't fight back. But Xi's potent response to the first trade war proved he could—and would—hit back hard. That lesson seems to have stuck.

Policy Contradictions Abound

Trump's China approach is riddled with inconsistencies. He slapped extra tariffs on India last year to curb its Russian oil purchases—which fund Putin's war machine—but largely gave China, Russia's biggest crude customer, a pass.

He signed legislation imposing tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, but the White House insists Trump retains discretion in applying these sanctions. Meanwhile, his administration reportedly pressured Venezuela to expel Chinese advisers after capturing Nicolás Maduro, part of a broader effort to push Beijing out of the Western Hemisphere.

This unpredictability underscores how personal—and erratic—foreign policy has become. As Brookings Institution scholars noted in analyzing the administration's National Security Strategy: U.S. foreign policy now "hinges on one mercurial leader."

Xi's Strategic Opportunity

Chinese analysts see Trump's softening as a golden opportunity. Da Wei of Tsinghua University recently suggested in Foreign Affairs that U.S.-China relations are at an "inflection point," making this an opportune moment to push for more concessions.

He recommended that America curb "politically provocative" naval missions near China—likely meaning South China Sea operations in international waters that Beijing claims as its own. He also counseled Trump to declare U.S. opposition to Taiwanese independence, which would mark a radical policy shift.

In return, Da offered to scale back military exercises around Taiwan and "increase cross-strait exchanges"—hardly meaningful concessions to Washington. China has strong incentives to push now, knowing Trump's fickle nature could suddenly close the window of opportunity.

The Democracy Disadvantage

Beijing also recognizes that American democracy is inherently prone to policy flip-flops. The hard-line Washington consensus on China will likely return with the next election, making this moment precious for extracting concessions.

The contrast with China's system is stark. While Trump flip-flops, Xi has centralized policy-making and proved relentlessly committed to expanding China's global power and technological dominance. Trump's conflict with NATO allies over Greenland must delight Xi because it prevents the international coordination needed to contain China.