Syria-Kurdish Truce Ends, Leaving 9,000 ISIS Prisoners in Limbo

Who guards the guards? In northeast Syria, this ancient question has taken on urgent new meaning as 9,000Islamic State prisoners sit in detention centers controlled by forces that may soon be at war with each other.

A four-day truce between Syria's government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) expired Saturday evening with no clear path to renewal. Government reinforcements are moving toward the northeast, while the SDF warns of an "intent to escalate" based on military buildups they've observed.

The Prize: Territory and Prisoners

The stakes couldn't be higher. Over three weeks of intense fighting, the U.S.-backed SDF has lost significant chunks of territory they once controlled. The Syrian government, asserting its sovereignty, signed an agreement last March requiring the SDF to hand over territory and merge fighters into government forces.

But January talks over the merger collapsed, reigniting conflict. A hastily arranged new accord last weekend led to this week's ceasefire, but the fundamental disagreement remains: the SDF wants to maintain some autonomy, while Damascus demands full integration of Kurdish fighters "as individuals" into Syrian army and police forces.

The human dimension is staggering. Government forces have already seized control of two prisons, including the al-Aqtan facility near Raqqa, where 126 boys under 18 were released to their families Saturday. But most of the 9,000 ISIS members remain in SDF-run facilities scattered across the region.

America's Dilemma

The U.S. finds itself in an impossible position. The SDF has been Washington's most reliable partner in the fight against ISIS, with Kurdish fighters bearing the brunt of casualties in the campaign that destroyed the so-called caliphate. But the U.S. also recognizes Syrian territorial integrity and can't indefinitely support what Damascus sees as separatist forces.

This week's announcement that 7,000 ISIS detainees will be transferred to Iraq—with 150 already moved Wednesday—suggests America is trying to reduce the stakes by removing the most dangerous prisoners from the equation. But it's a band-aid solution that doesn't address the underlying territorial dispute.

The Kurdish Calculation

For Syria's Kurds, the situation represents an existential choice. They've built semi-autonomous institutions across northeast Syria, including schools teaching in Kurdish, local councils, and women's rights protections that contrast sharply with traditional Syrian governance.

Integrating "as individuals" into Syrian forces would effectively end Kurdish political autonomy. Yet continued resistance risks devastating military defeat against a Syrian government backed by Russia and Iran, with Turkey actively hostile to Kurdish territorial gains.

The SDF statement Saturday struck a defiant but measured tone, pledging to "continue to abide by the truce" while calling on the international community to prevent escalation. It's a plea that reflects their strategic weakness: dependent on American protection that may not last forever.

Regional Ripple Effects

The Syria-Kurdish standoff reverberates across the Middle East. Turkey views any Kurdish territorial gains as a threat to its own stability, given its large Kurdish minority. Iran supports Syrian government control as part of its "axis of resistance." Iraq worries about ISIS prisoners being dumped on its territory.

Meanwhile, European nations that refuse to repatriate their citizens among the ISIS detainees watch nervously. A breakdown in detention security could see foreign fighters returning to European cities, turning a distant conflict into a direct security threat.