雪梨恐攻者曾在菲律賓受訓？伊斯蘭國威脅陰影下，菲南和平進程面臨考驗
澳洲雪梨邦迪海灘恐攻案引發兇嫌是否在菲律賓受訓的爭議。本文深入分析伊斯蘭國（IS）的「孤狼」威脅，以及菲南莫洛國和平進程對區域安全的關鍵影響。
雪梨邦迪海灘恐攻事件震驚全球，但一則指控卻讓案情急轉直下。有報導稱，兇手曾在菲律賓南部接受軍事訓練，此說法隨即遭到菲律賓官方的強烈駁斥，稱其為「過時且誤導」的標籤。這場跨國爭議的背後，不僅是對單一事件的究責，更揭示了伊斯蘭國（IS）在東南亞的潛在威脅，以及當地和平進程的脆弱平衡。
「雪梨之光」背後的「孤狼」戰略
澳洲總理艾班尼斯在12月14日事發後指出，行兇的父子檔受到伊斯蘭國的煽動。12月18日，伊斯蘭國的週刊《消息報》（Al-Naba）發文稱讚兩人為「雪梨之光」，但並未直接承認策劃此案。文章反而強調，煽動支持者發動「孤狼式」攻擊是一種高效戰略，它「無需大量資源，能克服許多障礙」，讓敵人陷入無盡的消耗戰。這反映出伊斯蘭國在失去實體領土後，已轉向更為分散和去中心化的全球叛亂模式。
菲南實況：和平進程下的恐怖主義威脅
將菲律賓南部的民答那峨島描繪成「恐怖份子溫床」的說法，忽視了當地數十年來的和平努力。自2019年「莫洛國伊斯蘭自治區」（BARMM）成立以來，該地區迎來了數十年來最穩定的時期。一項針對超過250名前武裝份子的研究顯示，伊斯蘭國東亞省（ISEA）的旗下派系，在反恐行動與和平進程的雙重壓力下，已變得「衰弱、分裂且內向」。這些組織的招募極度依賴家族與親屬網絡，使得外來者，特別是外國人，幾乎不可能滲透加入。
受訓之說為何站不住腳？
綜合來看，邦迪恐攻者在菲受訓的說法顯得疑點重重。首先，他們缺乏進入當地武裝組織所需的人際網絡與信任基礎。其次，從他們在攻擊中犯下的基本戰術錯誤來看，即便接受過訓練，也極其粗淺。在沒有確鑿證據出現前，相關猜測恐怕只是空穴來風。正如菲律賓國家安全顧問安約（Eduardo Ano）所呼籲，各方應回歸「以證據為基礎的報導」。
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