Takaichi's Supermajority: When Winning Big Changes Everything

At 1:14 PM Tokyo time on February 18, something unprecedented happened in Japanese politics. As the Diet reconvened following the February 8 general election, the ruling coalition didn't just hold a majority—they commanded over three-quarters of the lower house seats.

Sanae Takaichi walked into her cabinet meeting that afternoon with a political mandate that few Japanese prime ministers have ever enjoyed. But in politics, as in physics, every action has consequences.

The Numbers Behind the Landslide

Let's be clear about what "historic" means here. Out of 465 lower house seats, the LDP-led coalition secured well over 350—a figure that doesn't just cross the two-thirds threshold needed for constitutional amendments, it obliterates it.

Takaichi's personal approval rating stands at 69%, a number that would make most world leaders envious. Yet this overwhelming support creates its own set of challenges. When you have no significant opposition, who keeps you honest?

The policy platform that delivered this victory spans from food tax cuts to defense spending increases. The question isn't whether these policies will pass—with a supermajority, they almost certainly will. The question is whether they should.

Abe's Ghost, Trump's Expectations

To understand where Takaichi might lead Japan, look to her mentor: the late Shinzo Abe. His vision of Japan as a "normal country" with expanded military capabilities is getting a second act through his protégé.

Donald Trump's public support for Takaichi's victory wasn't just diplomatic courtesy—it reflected real expectations. The U.S. president sees Japan as a crucial counterweight to China's rising influence. But Trump's support comes with strings attached, particularly regarding Japan's investment commitments to American infrastructure projects.

For South Korea, this presents a diplomatic minefield. Takaichi's past positions on historical issues and her visits to Yasukuni Shrine suggest that Seoul-Tokyo relations could face new tensions, just when regional cooperation against China is most needed.

Markets Celebrate, Analysts Worry

Japanese stocks hit historic highs following the election results, with investors betting on economic reforms and increased defense spending. The "Japan is back" narrative has captured global attention, with foreign investment flowing into Japanese equities.

But scratch beneath the surface, and the picture becomes more complex. Defense spending increases could strain Japan's already stretched public finances. Some analysts worry that Takaichi's ambitious agenda might prove fiscally unsustainable.

The China factor looms large over market calculations. While investors welcome Japan's stronger stance, they also fear the economic costs of potential trade disputes with Japan's largest trading partner.

The Loneliness of Absolute Power

Here's the paradox of Takaichi's position: her overwhelming victory might actually limit her options. With such a massive mandate comes enormous responsibility. Every policy failure, every diplomatic misstep, will be hers alone to own.

The opposition parties, decimated by the election results, can barely function as a check on government power. This leaves Takaichi in the unusual position of having to police herself—a challenge that has historically proven difficult for leaders with absolute majorities.