Trump's Peace Board Snubs Key Allies for Strategic Middle Powers

Out of 650 million people across Southeast Asia, only three leaders made the cut. When President Trump convenes his first formal Board of Peace meeting in Washington on Thursday, just three Southeast Asian nations will have seats at the table: Indonesia, Vietnam, and Cambodia.

What's striking isn't who's there—it's who's missing. The Philippines and Thailand, both longtime U.S. allies, didn't get invitations. Neither did Malaysia, despite its existing trade partnership with America.

The Alliance Paradox

The three chosen leaders—Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, Vietnam's top leader To Lam, and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet—share a crucial trait: they're all from non-aligned middle powers walking tightropes between Washington and Beijing.

Indonesia, with 270 million citizens, is Southeast Asia's largest economy yet maintains careful neutrality between the superpowers. Vietnam borders China but charts its own course in South China Sea disputes. Even Cambodia, traditionally Beijing's closest regional ally, has been warming to Washington lately.

Meanwhile, the Philippines under Marcos Jr. has clearly tilted toward America, Thailand maintains a 70-year alliance with the U.S., and Malaysia already has trade deals locked in.

Trump's Calculation

"Why court countries that are already in your corner?" seems to be Trump's thinking. He's betting on persuadable fence-sitters rather than reliable allies who'll stick around regardless.

Indonesia offers particular appeal—the world's largest Muslim nation and a G20 member with serious symbolic weight. Vietnam, with 100 million people, represents a manufacturing powerhouse crucial for any "China+1" supply chain strategy.

Cambodia's invitation is perhaps the boldest move. Bringing a former Chinese Belt and Road showcase into America's orbit would represent a significant geopolitical coup. Recent U.S.-Cambodia military cooperation suggests this isn't just wishful thinking.

The Middle Power Moment

This selection reflects a broader shift in Trump's foreign policy approach. Rather than reinforcing existing alliances, he's prioritizing countries that could swing either way—nations with agency in the great power competition.

For these middle powers, the invitation represents validation of their strategic importance. They're not just regional players anymore; they're global swing states whose choices could reshape the balance of power.

The timing matters too. As U.S.-China competition intensifies, these countries increasingly find themselves holding cards that both superpowers want. Trump is making his bid early.

What This Means for Traditional Allies

Longstanding U.S. partners might feel a chill. If you're already locked into the American orbit, you might not get the same attention as countries still making up their minds.

This creates a peculiar dynamic: being a reliable ally could actually reduce your leverage. Countries that maintain strategic ambiguity might find themselves courted more aggressively than those that have already chosen sides.