Europe's Rude Awakening: When Rules No Longer Matter

The moment of truth came not with fanfare, but with exhausted relief. As European leaders departed the snowy peaks of Davos last week, they carried with them something more valuable than any trade deal or diplomatic breakthrough: the catharsis of finally saying what everyone else already knew.

The rules-based international order that built modern Europe is dead.

The Greenland Wake-Up Call

Donald Trump's threat to take Greenland by force – later walked back through NATO negotiations – served as more than just another diplomatic crisis to manage. It crystallized a harsh reality that much of the world has understood for years: law no longer reliably constrains power.

The episode unfolded with telling symbolism. Trump used his rambling Davos speech to rule out military action, but only after NATO chief Mark Rutte crafted a face-saving formula. The solution? Designate US military bases on the Danish territory as sovereign American soil, effectively giving Washington what it wanted without the messy business of invasion.

For European leaders, this wasn't just crisis management – it was a masterclass in how power politics works in the new world order. The strongest party gets what it wants. The weaker parties find ways to make it look legal.

Europe's Moment of Honesty

What made Davos 2025 different wasn't the presence of global tensions – those have been building for years. It was the succession of European leaders who took to the stage and acknowledged publicly what had long been whispered in Brussels corridors and Berlin meeting rooms.

French President Emmanuel Macron spoke of "strategic autonomy" not as aspiration but as survival necessity. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz referenced the need for Europe to "think differently about our place in the world." Even traditionally neutral voices began discussing military capabilities and economic leverage in terms that would have been unthinkable just five years ago.

The subtext was clear: Europe had spent decades building institutions, treaties, and diplomatic frameworks based on the assumption that everyone else would play by the same rules. That assumption no longer holds.

The Great Power Reality Check

This awakening reflects a broader shift that extends far beyond Greenland or even Trump's return to the White House. China's rise has fundamentally altered global dynamics, creating a multipolar world where different powers operate by different rules. Beijing's approach to international law is transactional – useful when it serves Chinese interests, ignorable when it doesn't.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine shattered any remaining illusions about the sanctity of borders and international agreements. Vladimir Putin's calculation was brutally simple: if you have the power to take something and the will to use it, legal niceties become secondary considerations.

Even traditional allies have embraced this new reality. India continues buying Russian oil despite Western sanctions. Saudi Arabia plays Washington and Beijing against each other with increasing sophistication. Turkey leverages its NATO membership while pursuing independent policies that often conflict with alliance interests.

Europe's Strategic Dilemma

The challenge for European leaders isn't just acknowledging this new reality – it's figuring out how to operate within it. The European Union was designed for a world of rules, regulations, and multilateral negotiations. Its greatest strength – the ability to create complex, legally binding frameworks – becomes a liability when other powers simply ignore those frameworks.

Consider the economic dimension. China uses state subsidies, forced technology transfers, and market access restrictions as tools of statecraft. America deploys tariffs, sanctions, and dollar dominance to achieve political goals. Europe, meanwhile, has spent decades perfecting competition law and trade regulations that assume everyone else wants to play fair.

The military aspect is even more stark. European defense spending has increased since the Ukraine war, but the continent still depends heavily on American security guarantees. As Trump makes clear his transactional approach to NATO commitments, European leaders face uncomfortable questions about their ability to defend their own interests.

The Investment in Hard Power

Some European responses are already emerging. France and Germany are pushing for greater defense integration. The EU is developing its own sanctions regimes and economic tools. There's growing talk of "economic sovereignty" and reducing dependence on both China and America for critical technologies and supply chains.

But these efforts face inherent tensions. European publics, particularly in Germany, remain deeply skeptical of military solutions and power politics. The EU's consensus-based decision-making process struggles with the speed required for geopolitical competition. National interests still trump European solidarity when push comes to shove.