Coinbase Price Target Slashed 27% as Crypto Winter Bites

From $399 to $290. That's how far JPMorgan just slashed its price target for Coinbase (COIN) ahead of Thursday's earnings—a 27% haircut that tells you everything about crypto's current reality.

The leading U.S. exchange has been bleeding since Bitcoin peaked above $126,000 in early October. COIN shares have plunged more than 50% from those highs, including a brutal 27% decline in 2026 alone. Even with JPMorgan's reduced target suggesting 75% upside from current levels around $165, the Street isn't buying the bounce-back story.

The Numbers Don't Lie

JPMorgan analyst Ken Worthington projects adjusted EBITDA of $734 million for Q4, down from $801 million last quarter. That's an 8% sequential drop despite a full quarter of contributions from Deribit, the derivatives exchange Coinbase acquired in August for precisely these kinds of market downturns.

The math is stark: Worthington estimates spot crypto trading volume of just $263 billion for the quarter. Compare that to the $586 billion Deribit is expected to generate, and you see the problem—retail investors have largely stepped away from the casino.

USDC stablecoin balances, a key revenue driver, are also contracting. Worthington models stablecoin-related revenue of $312 million, reflecting what he calls "slower USDC growth" as the crypto ecosystem shrinks.

When Diversification Isn't Enough

Coinbase's $117 million expected revenue contribution from Deribit should be a bright spot. The derivatives platform brings institutional-grade trading to Coinbase's ecosystem—exactly the kind of diversification Wall Street has been demanding.

But even with Deribit's boost, total transaction revenue is projected at $1.06 billion, barely above last quarter's $1 billion. Strip out the Deribit effect, and the core business is actually shrinking.

The subscription and services segment—Coinbase's supposed path to recurring revenue—is expected to miss guidance badly. At $670 million, it falls well short of the company's $710-790 million range. Lower staking yields and crypto price weakness are eating into what was supposed to be the stable part of the business.

Wall Street's Reality Check

Barclays is even more pessimistic, with analyst Benjamin Budish sitting 10% below consensus on EBITDA. His read-through from Robinhood's retail crypto volumes—which fell 15% quarter-over-quarter—suggests Coinbase's bread-and-butter retail business is in worse shape than many realize.

Compass Point's Ed Engel strikes the most bearish tone, warning that "overall revenue remains tied to overall crypto prices" despite investor hopes for diversification. He expects January trading revenue to reflect Coinbase's "weakest retail engagement since Q3 2024."

The Platform Paradox

Coinbase's struggle highlights a fundamental challenge for platform businesses in volatile markets. During crypto's bull runs, transaction fees are a money-printing machine. But when the music stops, even the best-positioned exchanges become weather-dependent businesses.