The AI Economy Myth: America's Real Growth Driver Isn't What You Think

If AI investment is supposedly keeping America's economy afloat, why did consumer spending do most of the heavy lifting in 2025?

The popular Wall Street narrative that artificial intelligence saved the U.S. economy from stagnation is getting a reality check. According to a new analysis from MRB Partners, good old-fashioned consumer spending—not AI capex—was the primary driver of American GDP growth last year.

The Numbers Tell a Different Story

MRB Partners' U.S. economic strategist Prajakta Bhide delivered some eye-opening findings that challenge Silicon Valley's favorite talking points. AI-related capital expenditures added around 0.9 percentage points to real GDP growth between Q1 and Q3 2025—roughly 40% of average growth during that period.

But here's where it gets interesting. When you adjust for imports of AI-related equipment (because most high-tech gear comes from overseas), the actual contribution shrinks to just 0.4-0.5 percentage points. That's only 20-25% of real GDP growth.

"AI is an important part of the growth story, but it's not the only part," Bhide told CNBC. "That narrative that's out there—that if we didn't have the AI capex, GDP would have slumped last year—is simply not true."

Consumers Were the Real MVPs

So who deserves the credit for keeping America's economic engine running? The answer is refreshingly mundane: American consumers and their spending habits.

Consumption remained the most crucial driver of U.S. GDP growth in 2025, which is typical during periods of economic expansion. AI investment was important, sure, but it played second fiddle to the tried-and-true economic workhorse of consumer demand.

Bespoke Investment Group reached similar conclusions, finding that AI-linked spending accounted for just 15% of quarterly GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 2025, with their overall GDP share coming in under 5%.

Interestingly, while data center construction grabbed headlines, it was actually investments in software and computers that made AI's biggest contribution to GDP growth.

What This Means for Your Portfolio

For investors who've been riding the AI wave, this analysis offers both reassurance and caution. The good news? The U.S. economy isn't as dependent on AI hype as many feared. Even without the AI boom, GDP growth would have remained decent—above 1.5%—thanks to solid consumer spending.

The flip side? If you've been betting everything on AI being the economy's sole savior, you might want to diversify your thesis. Consumer discretionary stocks, retail, and companies that benefit from broad-based economic growth deserve attention too.

This doesn't mean AI investments are worthless—far from it. But it does suggest the market may have overcorrected in attributing economic resilience primarily to artificial intelligence spending.

Looking Ahead: Consumption Still King

Bhide expects the U.S. economy to remain resilient in 2026, but again, her optimism isn't rooted in AI. Instead, she's betting on continued consumer strength despite slower income growth and rising wealth concentration.

"The U.S. consumer's still, in our view, in good shape," she said. "The argument that only the rich are driving consumption and that somehow makes consumption vulnerable—we don't find a lot of evidence for that."

She expects economic growth this year will be supported by further AI investments, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and stabilization in unemployment rates. But the foundation remains consumer spending.

The Bigger Picture

This analysis highlights a classic economic truth: transformative technologies often take longer to reshape economies than initial enthusiasm suggests. Remember how the internet was supposed to revolutionize productivity immediately? It took years for those gains to materialize meaningfully.

The same pattern may be playing out with AI. While the technology is undoubtedly important for long-term growth and competitiveness, its immediate economic impact has been overstated relative to traditional drivers like consumption.