Japan's Sanseito Promises Tax Cuts and Foreign Crackdown

Japan's populist Sanseito party has unveiled a sweeping set of campaign promises that reads like a populist playbook: slash taxes, boost child benefits, and tighten the borders. With the February 8 House of Representatives election approaching, party leader Sohei Kamiya is betting that Japanese voters are ready for a dramatic political shift.

But behind the appealing slogans of "Every single person is Japan" and "I am JAPAN" lies a fundamental question: Can a nation facing demographic collapse and economic stagnation afford to turn inward?

The Sweet Promises: No More Consumption Tax

At a Tokyo press conference Friday, Kamiya outlined his party's most eye-catching pledge: reducing Japan's national burden rate from 48% to 35% by abolishing the consumption tax entirely and cutting social insurance premiums. For Japanese consumers who've lived with a 10% consumption tax since 2019, this sounds like economic salvation.

The party's child-rearing policy is equally ambitious, promising 100,000 yen monthly for every child between ages 0 and 15. "I want to create a society for people who work hard for Japan, ensuring that if they work diligently and honestly, they can live in peace," Kamiya declared.

The math, however, tells a different story. Abolishing consumption tax alone would eliminate over 20 trillion yen in annual revenue—roughly equivalent to Japan's entire defense and education budgets combined. Add the child benefits, and the fiscal hole becomes astronomical. Kamiya offered no concrete funding mechanism for these promises.

Building Walls in an Aging Nation

Perhaps more striking than the tax promises is Sanseito's hardline stance on immigration. Kamiya wants to prevent Japan from becoming an "immigration nation" through a new "Agency for Foreigners Policy," stricter caps on foreign residents, and enhanced crackdowns on overstayers.

This anti-immigration rhetoric collides head-on with Japan's demographic reality. The country faces its worst labor shortage in decades, with 3.4 million foreign residents already helping fill critical gaps in construction, agriculture, and eldercare. The government has been actively expanding foreign worker programs, not restricting them.

Yet Sanseito's message resonates with voters who feel economically squeezed and culturally displaced. The party's call for "history education that will make people love Japan" and criminalizing damage to the national flag taps into anxieties about national identity in a globalizing world.

The Trump Playbook in Tokyo

Sanseito's platform mirrors populist movements worldwide: promise immediate economic relief while blaming outsiders for systemic problems. Like Donald Trump's "America First" or Britain's Brexit campaign, it offers simple solutions to complex challenges.

The party made significant gains in last July's upper house election with this formula. Now Kamiya is targeting the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, vowing to prevent them from winning a single-party majority and "reverting to their old ways."

But Japan's political system, with its emphasis on consensus and incremental change, may prove resistant to populist disruption. Unlike the US or UK, Japan has limited experience with anti-establishment movements gaining real power.

The Economic Reality Check

While Kamiya promises to slash the national burden rate, Japan's actual tax burden tells a more nuanced story. The average worker faces a 22% net tax rate, while families with children pay around 14%—lower than many developed nations. The 48% figure Kamiya cites applies only to Japan's highest earners making over 40 million yen annually—a tiny elite fraction of the population.

Meanwhile, Japan's aging society demands ever-greater social spending. Cutting taxes while increasing benefits might win votes, but it could accelerate the fiscal crisis that already sees Japan carrying the world's highest debt-to-GDP ratio.