5 Thorny Issues Blocking a Russia Ukraine Peace Deal 2025

A deal is edging closer, but the final mile is proving to be the hardest. Although Donald Trump’s 20-point plan provides a roadmap, 'one or two very thorny issues' still threaten to derail the most significant diplomatic effort since the full-scale war began.

Russia Ukraine Peace Deal Obstacles: Territory and Nuclear Sovereignty

The fate of Donbas, Ukraine's industrial heartland, remains the primary sticking point. Vladimir Putin demands full control of Donetsk, despite only occupying roughly 75% of the region. Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed a demilitarized zone, citing the need to protect the 300,000 civilians living in the 'fortress belt' cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Sovereignty over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is another flashpoint. While the US suggests a joint management enterprise, Russia insists that only its agency, Rosatom, can ensure safety. For Ukraine, losing control of Europe’s largest nuclear facility is a blow to its long-term energy security and economic recovery.

The Trust Deficit and the Referendum Wildcard

The lack of mutual trust remains absolute. "I don't trust Putin," Zelensky stated bluntly, casting doubt on Russian promises of cheap energy or non-aggression. Compounding this are financial disputes, with reconstruction costs estimated at $800bn and €210bn in frozen Russian assets at stake.

Perhaps the most significant hurdle is Zelensky's insistence on a national referendum. With 85% of Ukrainians rejecting territorial concessions in Donbas, any deal signed in Washington might lack domestic validity. Russia, however, views the required 60-day ceasefire for a vote as a mere tactical pause for Kyiv to rearm.