China's Gray Fleet Hits Record 241 Vessels in South China Sea

241 vessels. That's how many Chinese maritime militia ships were deployed daily in the South China Sea in 2025, according to a new US think tank report. It's a record high, up from 232 the previous year. But the real story isn't just about numbers—it's about what's changing beneath the surface.

The Gray Fleet's Evolution

The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), part of Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies, released its analysis Monday. These aren't ordinary fishing boats. They're part of China's "gray fleet"—vessels that look civilian but serve state purposes.

The maritime militia operates in two tiers. Professional militia crews work alongside the "Spratly Backbone Fishing Fleet," a state-subsidized armada of large fishing vessels that maintain near-permanent presence in disputed waters.

Beijing consistently denies these vessels play any military role in South China Sea standoffs. But satellite data and ship tracking tell a different story.

A Subtle Strategic Shift

Here's where it gets interesting. While overall numbers increased, AMTI noted that civilian fishing fleets concentrated near less contested reefs. This suggests their "waning strategic role" in Beijing's playbook.

Three interpretations emerge from this pattern:

First, China might be professionalizing its gray fleet operations. Deploy specialized militia to hotspots, while civilian vessels handle routine presence missions in calmer areas.

Second, it could signal tactical restraint under international pressure. As criticism mounts over militarizing civilian vessels, Beijing may be trying to maintain plausible deniability.

Third, this might reflect a more sophisticated long-term strategy. Establish permanent infrastructure under the guise of fishing, ready to activate when needed.

The Neighbors' Dilemma

For countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia, China's approach creates an impossible choice. Send warships against fishing boats? That looks like escalation. Ignore them? That risks normalization of Chinese presence.

The genius of gray zone tactics lies precisely in this ambiguity. How do you respond to threats that aren't quite threats? Traditional deterrence frameworks struggle with adversaries who operate below the threshold of obvious military action.

The US faces similar challenges. American naval patrols can't exactly fire warning shots at fishing vessels, even when those vessels are clearly serving strategic purposes.

Beyond the Numbers Game

The 241-vessel figure matters less than what it represents: China's commitment to a patient, incremental approach to territorial control. Rather than dramatic military moves that invite international backlash, Beijing prefers the slow accumulation of facts on the water.

This strategy has proven remarkably effective. Over the past decade, China has transformed disputed reefs into military installations, established administrative control over vast ocean areas, and normalized its presence throughout the South China Sea—all while maintaining that it's simply protecting legitimate maritime rights.

Other nations are taking notes. Russia's activities in the Arctic, Turkey's actions in the Eastern Mediterranean, and Iran's proxy operations all show elements of similar gray zone approaches.