Trump’s 2025 NSS and Vietnam: Navigating a World of Spheres of Influence

The age of multilateralism is dying. President Donald Trump's 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) has signaled a cold return to power politics. From the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to threats against Mexico and claims over Greenland, Washington's focus has shifted decisively toward asserting dominance in the Western Hemisphere. This disregard for traditional sovereignty norms—mirrored by the forced land cession in Ukraine—is forcing frontline states like Vietnam to rewrite their survival manuals.

The 2025 NSS: A Strategic Retreat from the Indo-Pacific?

For Hanoi, the U.S. pivot back to its own neighborhood is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it dismantles Vietnam’s strategy of diplomatic diversification. If the United States accepts a world organized by spheres of influence, it tacitly grants China a free hand in Southeast Asia. The fear is that Beijing might view this as a green light for aggression in the South China Sea or against Taiwan. Furthermore, Trump's aggressive anti-communist rhetoric against Cuba hasn't gone unnoticed by Vietnam's leadership, who share similar political structures.

The Silver Lining of a Single Hegemon

However, a U.S. withdrawal might relieve Vietnam from the constant pressure to pick a side. History shows that whenever multiple powers compete in Indochina, Vietnam becomes a battlefield. Since 1991, Vietnam has largely operated within China’s shadow, adopting a non-aligned policy. If Washington assures Beijing it won't enlist Hanoi into an anti-China coalition, China may feel secure enough to strike pragmatic bargains over territorial disputes, much like the border treaties signed in 1999 and 2000.