Trump's Military Threat and the Human Cost of US Iran Sanctions Impact 2026

They're shaking hands but holding a fist behind their backs. United States President Donald Trump has threatened military intervention in Iran as anti-government protests sweep across the nation. Writing on Truth Social, he claimed that "Iran is looking at FREEDOM" and that the USA stands ready to help. However, critics argue this offer of aid ignores a painful reality: decades of US-led sanctions have been the primary catalyst for the very economic misery driving Iranians into the streets.

The Reality of US Iran Sanctions Impact 2026: Aid or Agony?

According to reports from Reuters, the Iranian rial has plummeted to a record low, trading at more than 1.4 million to the dollar as of January 12, 2026. This is a staggering drop from 700,000 rials just one year ago. The currency collapse has fueled inflation, with food prices surging by 72% on average, making basic survival a daily struggle for millions.

The roots of this crisis trace back to the "maximum pressure" campaign initiated during Trump's first term. Following the 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal, Iranian oil exports—the lifeblood of its economy—fell by 60-80%. Consequently, Iran's GDP per capita has dwindled from over $8,000 in 2012 to approximately $5,000 by 2024.

Shrinking Middle Class and Public Safety

Experts emphasize that sanctions have decimated the middle class. Economists from Marburg and Brandeis University found that the middle class in Iran is 28 percentage points smaller than it would have been without these restrictions. Beyond the ledger, the human cost is visible in the aviation sector, where sanctions on spare parts led to crashes that killed over 2,000 people between 1979 and 2023.