Pakistan Declares 'Open War' on Taliban After Kabul Strikes

Pakistan's fighter jets struck Afghanistan's capital at dawn Friday, bombing Kabul alongside Kandahar and Paktia in an unprecedented escalation that shattered years of uneasy coexistence. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif declared "open war" on the Taliban government, marking the most serious military confrontation between the nuclear-armed neighbor and its war-torn counterpart in years.

The airstrikes came hours after Afghan forces launched coordinated cross-border attacks on Pakistani military positions across six border provinces Thursday night. The Taliban claimed 55 Pakistani soldiers were killed and 19 outposts captured—figures Pakistan dismissed as propaganda while acknowledging 2 soldiers died.

Pakistan said it eliminated at least 133 Afghan fighters in retaliation, destroying 27 Afghan outposts. But the numbers tell only part of the story. What's unfolding represents a dangerous new chapter in regional security, with no framework in place to contain it.

The Breaking Point

Pakistan's rationale for Friday's heavy attacks lies in a renewed wave of violence at home that pushed Islamabad past its tolerance threshold.

On February 6, a suicide bomber killed 36 people at a Shia mosque in Islamabad. Days later, an explosives-laden vehicle rammed a security post in Bajaur, killing 11 soldiers and a child. Pakistani authorities identified the attacker as an Afghan national and issued a formal protest to Kabul.

February 21 brought another suicide attack on a security convoy in Bannu, killing 2 more soldiers. These incidents prompted Pakistan's first round of strikes inside Afghanistan last weekend, targeting what it called hideouts of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

The TTP, formed in 2007, fought alongside the Afghan Taliban against US-led forces but remains organizationally distinct despite deep ideological, social and linguistic ties. Pakistan accuses Kabul of providing sanctuary to the TTP—a charge the Taliban denies but which lies at the heart of this escalating crisis.

"Pakistan asked the Taliban to control TTP, held several talks along with Turkey and Qatar, but it wasn't going to work because the Taliban refused to take responsibility," said retired three-star general Tariq Khan, who has led operations against the TTP.

The group has waged a rebellion against Pakistan for over a decade, demanding hardline Islamic law, release of detained members, and reversal of tribal area mergers, among other demands. Another major concern is the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which Pakistan alleges also benefits from Afghan sanctuary while fighting for independence of Pakistan's mineral-rich southwestern province.

Asymmetric Warfare Begins

The Taliban has no air force, but comparing conventional military capabilities misses the point entirely.

"The Afghan system conducts kinetic operations through proxies, guerrilla warfare, and a war of attrition," Khan explained. "If you get drawn into a war of attrition, you're on the losing side, no matter what nuclear capability or air power you possess, because you're fighting on their turf."

By Friday afternoon, Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar confirmed drone attacks in three Pakistani cities—Abbotabad, Swabi and Nowshera—blaming the Taliban government. "Small drones were brought down. No damage to life," he posted on social media, but the message was clear: the Taliban's asymmetric response had begun.

Security analyst Abdul Basit warned of broader "unconventional options." "They have suicide bombers and the poor man's air force, kamikaze drones. I think they'll use both these options in large numbers, and Pakistani urban centers will see violence for the foreseeable future."

The Taliban's most potent asymmetric card may be its capacity to restrain—or loosen—tolerance for TTP operations inside Pakistan. So far, there's no verified evidence of extensive Taliban military support for the TTP, but that calculation could change rapidly.

Iftikhar Firdous, security analyst and co-founder of The Khorasan Diary, argued that proxy leverage lies at the heart of this confrontation. "Even a cursory sentiment analysis of Afghan social media linked to the Taliban clearly shows alignment in agenda and, at times, a clear call for action by proxy groups."

No Clear Exit

Neither side appears to have an obvious off-ramp from this escalating conflict.

Pakistan's operation received backing from the president, prime minister and across the political spectrum, with the government pledging to respond to any attack emanating from Afghan soil. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned there would be "no leniency" in defending Pakistan's homeland.

For the Taliban, absorbing strikes on Kabul and stepping back risks projecting weakness to fighters and the public it governs. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid confirmed the strikes but claimed no casualties, announcing retaliatory operations had begun from Kandahar and Helmand.

The exchanges shattered a ceasefire brokered by Turkey and Qatar following 10 days of deadly border fighting in October that killed more than 70 people. Subsequent negotiations in Doha and Istanbul failed to produce a formal agreement, and what's unfolding now is categorically more dangerous.

"This has been a step-by-step escalation; not one step has been reversed, we have only moved forward," Basit observed. "Tensions may come down temporarily, but there's no going back. Summer has arrived early in the Af-Pak region, and we're bracing for a bloody summer in both countries."

Striking military installations in Kabul and Kandahar marks a shift from peripheral border zones to the Taliban's administrative and ideological centers. Yet dismantling decentralized and mobile TTP networks embedded along both sides of the porous frontier remains far from guaranteed.