Nvidia-OpenAI's $100B Deal Stalls After 5 Months

$100 billion. That's the staggering sum Nvidia and OpenAI announced in September, a deal that was supposed to reshape the AI landscape. Five months later, not a single contract has been signed, not a dollar has changed hands.

When AI's Power Couple Hits a Rough Patch

The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that negotiations between the companies are "on ice," with sources inside Nvidia expressing doubts about OpenAI's business model. The warning signs were already there in November, when Nvidia's quarterly filing included a telling disclaimer: "There is no assurance that we will enter into definitive agreements with respect to the OpenAI opportunity."

The friction stems from both companies' strategic diversification efforts. Nvidia, flush with cash and seeking to reduce customer concentration risks, has been spreading its investments. In November, it committed $10 billion to Anthropic, OpenAI's main rival. Meanwhile, OpenAI has been courting alternative chip suppliers, announcing partnerships with AMD, Broadcom, and startup Cerebras in deals worth over $10 billion.

Jensen Huang and Sam Altman appeared together in September to announce their historic partnership, but their companies have since been hedging their bets with competitors.

The Symbiotic Relationship They Can't Escape

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Despite the reported tensions, both CEOs are publicly downplaying any drama. "We hope to be a gigantic customer for a very long time," Altman posted on X. "I don't get where all this insanity is coming from." Huang told CNBC Tuesday that "there's no drama" and confirmed Nvidia would invest in OpenAI's next funding round.

The numbers tell the story of their interdependence. When ChatGPT launched, Nvidia's quarterly revenue was $6 billion. By October 2024, it had swelled nearly tenfold to $57 billion. OpenAI, now valued at $500 billion privately and eyeing an $800 billion valuation, has grown alongside Nvidia's chip dominance.

OpenAI infrastructure executive Sachin Katti emphasized Monday that "our entire compute fleet runs on Nvidia GPUs," calling their partnership "foundational." With 800 million weekly ChatGPT users and projected $20 billion annual sales, OpenAI remains Nvidia's most visible success story.

The Broader Stakes for AI's Future

This standoff reflects deeper tensions in the AI ecosystem. Nvidia controls over 90% of the GPU market for AI training, giving it unprecedented leverage. But OpenAI's diversification strategy signals that even the most successful AI companies are wary of single-supplier dependence.

The original September deal involved OpenAI building infrastructure requiring 10 gigawatts of power, with Nvidia's initial $10 billion investment deploying when the first gigawatt comes online in late 2026. That timeline now looks increasingly optimistic.

For investors, the implications are significant. Nvidia's stock has dropped 15% from its October peak, wiping out $600 billion in market value. The company's customer concentration among a few hyperscalers remains a key concern, making diversification deals like the Anthropic investment crucial for long-term stability.