Bought Bitcoin at $107K, Now $66K: Metaplanet's $1B Gamble

What do you do when your $2.5 billion Bitcoin bet is underwater by nearly $1 billion? If you're Metaplanet, you double down and buy more.

The Tokyo-based company, Asia's largest publicly-traded Bitcoin holder, is staring at massive unrealized losses after accumulating 35,102 Bitcoin at an average price of $107,000 per coin. With Bitcoin now trading around $66,000, that's roughly $1.4 billion in paper losses—yet CEO Simon Gerovich isn't backing down.

"We will steadily continue to accumulate Bitcoin, expand revenue and prepare for the next phase of growth," Gerovich posted on X Friday, as both Bitcoin and his company's shares tumbled. It's a bold stance that raises fundamental questions about corporate treasury management in the crypto era.

The Numbers Tell a Stark Story

The mathematics are brutal. Metaplanet's Bitcoin holdings, worth $2.5 billion at current prices, cost the company approximately $3.8 billion to acquire. That's a $1.3 billion unrealized loss sitting on the balance sheet, alongside $280 million in outstanding debt.

The company's stock has been equally punishing to shareholders. From a June peak of 1,930 yen, shares have crashed 82% to 340 yen—roughly $2.16. Friday's 5.6% decline following Bitcoin's Thursday selloff only added salt to the wound.

Yet Metaplanet remains committed to its "555 Million Plan," targeting 100,000 Bitcoin by end-2026 and 210,000 Bitcoin by 2027. At current prices, reaching the 2027 goal would require approximately $14 billion in additional purchases.

The Funding Challenge

Here's where the strategy gets particularly interesting—and risky. Metaplanet announced plans to raise up to 21 billion yen (roughly $140 million) through new share issuance at 499 yen per share. There's just one problem: the stock currently trades at 340 yen.

This pricing disconnect suggests either remarkable optimism about a near-term recovery or a potential struggle to attract new capital. The company plans to issue 24.53 million new shares plus warrants to select investors, effectively diluting existing shareholders who've already watched their holdings lose 82% of their value.

Corporate Bitcoin: Trend or Trap?

Metaplanet ranks fourth globally among publicly-traded Bitcoin holders, behind MicroStrategy (713,502 BTC), MARA Holdings (53,250 BTC), and Twenty One Capital (43,514 BTC). But unlike MicroStrategy, which began its Bitcoin strategy when prices were much lower, Metaplanet entered aggressively during Bitcoin's recent peak period.

This timing difference matters enormously. MicroStrategy's average cost basis is significantly lower, giving it more cushion during downturns. Metaplanet's high-cost basis means every Bitcoin price decline hits harder, creating a potential spiral where falling prices force difficult decisions about continued accumulation.

The Institutional Question

For institutional investors watching this unfold, Metaplanet represents both a cautionary tale and a fascinating experiment. The company is essentially testing whether aggressive Bitcoin accumulation can work as a core business strategy, not just a treasury diversification play.

The results so far suggest the approach carries enormous risks. Shareholders are experiencing the full volatility of cryptocurrency markets without the upside protection that comes from lower entry points. Meanwhile, the debt burden adds another layer of complexity, potentially forcing asset sales at inopportune moments.