Takaichi's Second Term: Japan's Pivot Toward Assertive Diplomacy

The moment Sanae Takaichi secured her second term as Japan's Prime Minister, she didn't just win another election—she signaled a potential transformation of Japan's role in an increasingly volatile East Asia.

Standing before reporters at the Prime Minister's residence, Takaichi spoke of "fundamental changes in Northeast Asia's security environment," words that carried weight far beyond typical political rhetoric. For a country that has maintained a pacifist constitution for nearly eight decades, such language represents a significant shift.

The Expected Victory with Unexpected Implications

Takaichi's reappointment was hardly surprising. Polls consistently showed her approval ratings hovering above 60% for the past six months, largely driven by her economic policies and steady leadership during regional tensions. What makes this victory noteworthy isn't the outcome, but the mandate it provides for her more assertive foreign policy agenda.

During her first term, Takaichi began laying groundwork for what she calls "proactive pacifism"—a doctrine that maintains Japan's peaceful principles while allowing for more robust defense capabilities. Her reappointment suggests Japanese voters are ready for this evolution.

The timing is crucial. With North Korea's continued missile tests, China's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, and the ongoing war in Ukraine reshaping global security paradigms, Japan finds itself at a crossroads between its pacifist heritage and strategic necessities.

Three Pillars of Takaichi's Second Term

Defense Spending Revolution: Takaichi has committed to increasing Japan's defense budget to 2% of GDP, nearly doubling the current 1.1%. While this still trails South Korea's 2.8%, Japan's economic scale means this represents a massive military capability expansion. The question isn't whether Japan can afford this increase, but whether its neighbors will view it as defensive or provocative.

Technology Alliance Building: Perhaps more significant than military spending is Takaichi's push for deeper technological cooperation with democratic allies. Her administration is actively courting partnerships in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing—areas where Japan seeks to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains while strengthening ties with like-minded nations.

Diplomatic Balancing Act: Takaichi faces the delicate challenge of maintaining economic relationships with China while building security partnerships against Chinese expansion. This balance will define not just Japan's foreign policy, but the entire region's stability.

The Domestic Calculation

Japanese citizens appear cautiously supportive of Takaichi's direction. A recent survey showed 67% approval for increased defense spending, though support drops to 43% when respondents consider potential tax implications. This suggests Takaichi has public backing for her security agenda, but within limits.

Younger Japanese voters, in particular, show different attitudes toward their country's international role compared to previous generations. Having grown up during China's rise and North Korea's nuclear development, they're more accepting of Japan taking a stronger security stance.

Business leaders have expressed mixed feelings. While they welcome Takaichi's push for technological independence, they worry about potential Chinese economic retaliation. Japan's trade with China remains substantial—$371 billion in 2025—making any deterioration in relations economically costly.

Regional Reactions and Global Implications

South Korea's response has been notably measured. While historical tensions persist, both countries recognize shared security interests regarding North Korea and China. Takaichi's reappointment might actually accelerate Japan-South Korea security cooperation, despite ongoing historical disputes.

China's reaction will be telling. Beijing has consistently opposed Japan's military normalization, but Takaichi's approach—emphasizing defensive capabilities and alliance partnerships rather than unilateral military expansion—may be harder to criticize internationally.

The United States views Takaichi's reappointment favorably. Her commitment to burden-sharing and alliance strengthening aligns with American strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. However, Washington will watch carefully to ensure Japan's military expansion doesn't trigger regional arms races.