After a 'Perilous' 2025, Can the Philippines' Marcos Find Redemption in 2026?

The Lede: A Make-or-Break Year

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is facing a pivotal 2026 after navigating a tumultuous year marked by political infighting, economic headwinds, and a cascade of scandals. According to a new analysis in Nikkei Asia, the coming year represents a 'make-or-break' moment for the embattled leader as he takes the helm of ASEAN, offering a potential path to redemption amid looming domestic threats.

A 'Flood of Scandals' in 2025

The analysis, authored by University of the Philippines senior lecturer Richard Heydarian, paints a grim picture of Marcos's 2025, suggesting he 'barely survived' the year. His administration has been dogged by a 'flood of scandals,' exacerbating tensions with the powerful political clan of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. Furthermore, the nation's judicial system has come under intense scrutiny over its handling of high-profile cases like that of death-row inmate Mary Jane Veloso, damaging its international standing.

The Duterte Comeback Threat

According to Heydarian, the most significant domestic challenge for Marcos is the looming possibility of a political comeback by the Duterte faction. The once-celebrated 'UniTeam' alliance between Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte has effectively fractured, setting the stage for a major political confrontation.

The ASEAN Chairmanship: A Path to Redemption?

Against this backdrop of domestic turmoil, Marcos's primary opportunity lies on the international stage. In 2026, the Philippines assumes the rotating chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The symbolic handover of the gavel from Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on October 28 in Kuala Lumpur underscored this shift. It's a chance for Marcos to project leadership on critical regional issues, from the South China Sea disputes to the crisis in Myanmar, and use that prestige to bolster his standing back home.