Japan's $6.4B Crypto ETF Market Opens 2028 as SBI, Nomura Prep Products

$6.4 billion. That's the potential size of Japan's crypto ETF market when it launches in 2028, according to asset management experts cited by Nikkei. Four years after the U.S. shook global crypto markets with spot bitcoin ETFs, Asia's second-largest economy is finally joining the party.

Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) plans to classify cryptocurrencies as eligible assets for exchange-traded funds under the Investment Trust Act, with SBI Holdings and Nomura Holdings already expressing interest in developing products.

Late to the Party, But Playing It Safe

The 2028 timeline puts Japan four years behind the U.S., where spot bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and now hold $116 billion in assets. Spot ether ETFs, which debuted later, have accumulated $18 billion.

But Japan's approach reflects a different philosophy. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama called 2026 the "digital year" two weeks ago, fully supporting crypto trading services integration by stock exchanges. She specifically mentioned U.S. crypto ETFs and their benefits as an inflation hedge.

The regulatory groundwork suggests deliberate preparation rather than rushed adoption. SBI Holdings filed for a dual-asset crypto ETF in August, providing direct exposure to both bitcoin and XRP—a rare institutional-grade product bundling XRP with BTC.

Asia's Crypto Hub Competition Heats Up

Japan's entry reshapes Asia's crypto landscape. Hong Kong launched Asia's first spot bitcoin and ether ETFs in April 2024, but inflows have been modest at around $300 million.

Japan's 1 trillion yen ($6.4 billion) projected market would be 20 times larger than Hong Kong's current size. The difference? Japan's massive domestic savings market and established ETF ecosystem, where investors already hold over $700 billion in various ETFs.

Singapore and South Korea remain on the sidelines. Singapore's cautious regulatory stance prioritizes institutional over retail access, while South Korea continues debating crypto ETF frameworks amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty.

From Speculation to Investment Infrastructure

Japan's crypto ETF approval represents more than new financial products—it signals crypto's evolution from speculative asset to investment infrastructure. The Tokyo Stock Exchange's final approval remains pending, but government support and major financial firms' participation suggest strong momentum.

The timing matters. By 2028, crypto markets may look vastly different. Will institutional adoption have matured? Will regulatory frameworks have converged globally? Will the current bull market have run its course?

U.S. bitcoin ETF launches coincided with bitcoin's 70% price surge through 2024. Whether Japan's market opening becomes another catalyst or arrives during market maturity will determine its impact on global crypto prices.

The Institutional Onboarding Continues

Japan's measured approach contrasts with the U.S.'s rapid ETF approval process, but it may prove more sustainable. Japanese retail investors, known for conservative investment preferences, might embrace crypto through familiar ETF structures rather than direct exchange trading.

The dual-asset ETF concept from SBI particularly intrigues. Combining bitcoin with XRP in institutional products could legitimize alternative cryptocurrencies beyond bitcoin and ether, potentially influencing global institutional crypto allocation strategies.

Any Japanese crypto ETFs would need Tokyo Stock Exchange listing approval—a final hurdle that could determine product features, fee structures, and market access.