Lawson's India Gamble: 10,000 Stores or Fool's Gold?

Next year, Lawson will open its first store in Mumbai with an audacious goal: 10,000 locations across India by 2050. The numbers sound impressive, but they mask a harsh reality—Japan's convenience store market has hit a wall.

When Home Turf Runs Dry

Lawson's India push isn't just about growth; it's about survival. Japan's 55,000 convenience stores have reached saturation point. Every corner already has a 7-Eleven, Lawson, or FamilyMart. The domestic market has become a zero-sum game where stealing customers from competitors is the only path forward.

India, with its 1.4 billion people and rapidly expanding middle class, looks like the promised land. But appearances can be deceiving. The subcontinent has already seen global retail giants stumble—remember when Walmart struggled for years to crack the market?

The Convenience Conundrum

Japanese convenience stores built their empire on 24/7 operations and services that go far beyond snacks. Bill payments, package pickup, ATMs—they're mini lifestyle hubs. But India's digital revolution has already solved many of these problems differently.

Paytm and Google Pay handle payments. Swiggy and Zomato deliver food faster than you can walk to a store. Indian consumers have leapfrogged the convenience store model entirely in many areas. What exactly is Lawson bringing to the party?

The Price Reality Check

Then there's the economics. A premium Lawson bento box costs around ¥500 ($3.30) in Japan—already expensive by local standards. In India, where a full meal can cost less than ₹100 ($1.20), that pricing model becomes laughable. Lawson will need to completely reimagine its value proposition.

The company's success in other Asian markets like Thailand and Indonesia offers some hope, but India operates on a different scale entirely. Cultural preferences, supply chains, labor costs—everything needs rebuilding from scratch.