How Europe's 'Plausible Deniability' Paved the Way for China in North Africa

The common narrative of China's growing presence in North Africa is often framed as a zero-sum game: either European decline or aggressive Chinese expansion. But this realpolitik framing misses a simpler truth, an analysis suggests: China isn't displacing Europe so much as it's filling a 'partnership gap' that Europe itself has created.

At the heart of Europe's recent strategy is a preference for 'plausible deniability'—a calculated approach to maximize flexibility and minimize political responsibility. This is most evident in two key areas: migration management and energy security. As migration became a volatile issue in domestic European politics, the EU prioritized immediate reductions in arrivals over structural solutions. It outsourced enforcement to partners like the Libyan Coast Guard, allowing European governments to claim success while distancing themselves from the controversial methods and consequences.

A similar logic unfolded in energy policy after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Algeria's importance as a gas supplier surged, prompting intense but transactional European engagement. The focus was on securing short-term supply, not on a broader strategic framework or long-term investment. Europe prioritized insulating itself from risk, retaining the option to disengage as circumstances changed.

This consistent preference for deniability has created a vacuum. While Europe has sought to manage its exposure, it has constrained its own willingness to commit visibly and durably. It's in this space that China has expanded, not with an overt strategy of displacement, but by operating on a different logic.

Chinese policy in the region, from Morocco to Egypt, is characterized by a commitment to durable, asset-based projects—often in sectors where exit options are limited and timelines far exceed electoral cycles. In Morocco, Chinese state-backed firms are central to building out the Tanger Med port complex. In Egypt, they are constructing the New Administrative Capital. In Algeria, their involvement in the energy sector is expanding cautiously but consistently.

These projects don't directly challenge Europe's position as the region's main trading partner or its regulatory influence. Instead, they occupy a complementary space. Where European engagement focuses on standards and crisis management, Chinese involvement provides continuity in capital-intensive infrastructure that requires long time horizons and a tolerance for sunk costs. It's not about 'what' is being done, but 'how'. China accepts exposure in exchange for durability; Europe preserves flexibility at the cost of strategic depth.