South Korea's 1% Growth Trap: When Will It End?

54% of South Korea's top economists expect the country to remain trapped in 1% growth territory this year. That's the stark finding from a survey of 100 economics professors commissioned by the Korea Enterprises Federation, painting a picture of an economy struggling to regain momentum.

The projection of 1.8% average growth falls short of both the government's 2% target and the International Monetary Fund's1.9% forecast. It suggests that last year's 1% expansion—down from 2% in the previous year—wasn't an aberration but potentially the new normal for Asia's fourth-largest economy.

The Long Road to Recovery

There's a glimmer of hope on the horizon. 36% of economists believe South Korea could return to 2% growth starting in 2027, driven by gradual recovery in consumption and demand. But that's still two years away, and 6% of experts warn growth could dip below 1%—a scenario that would signal serious economic stagnation.

The won-dollar exchange rate adds another layer of uncertainty. Economists project it will fluctuate between 1,403 and 1,516 won per dollar this year. With the current rate hovering around 1,440 won, businesses are bracing for significant volatility that could impact everything from import costs to export competitiveness.

The Trump Factor Looms Large

Nearly 60% of economists identified U.S.-South Korea tariff negotiations as a key risk factor that could negatively impact exports and domestic corporate investment. With the Trump administration's protectionist stance, South Korean giants like Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Hyundai Motor face potential headwinds in their largest overseas market.

South Korea's export-dependent economy remains vulnerable to trade tensions. Semiconductors, automobiles, and chemicals—the country's export pillars—could all face higher tariffs, potentially derailing any recovery momentum.

AI: The Unlikely Savior?

In a rare bright spot, 92% of economists see artificial intelligence as a game-changer for productivity, particularly in manufacturing. As South Korea grapples with labor shortages due to an aging population and young people's reluctance to work in traditional industries, AI could fill critical gaps.

The enthusiasm for AI reflects a broader recognition that South Korea needs technological innovation to overcome structural economic challenges. However, nearly 90% of experts also called for stronger measures to prevent the overseas leakage of core technologies, highlighting concerns about maintaining competitive advantages in an increasingly fragmented global tech landscape.

Beyond the Numbers

What makes this survey particularly significant is its timing. South Korea is navigating multiple transitions simultaneously: demographic shifts, geopolitical tensions, and technological disruption. The country's traditional growth model—built on exports and manufacturing—faces new challenges that require fresh approaches.

The economists' cautious outlook reflects deeper questions about South Korea's economic model. Can a country that achieved rapid industrialization in the late 20th century adapt to 21st-century realities of slower global growth, trade fragmentation, and technological disruption?