Friends with the Enemy? Why China Fears a NATO Collapse in 2026

They're shaking hands, but their fists remain clenched. Donald Trump’s rapprochement with Vladimir Putin and the friction over the Greenland dispute have reignited a critical question: What happens if NATO actually collapses?

China's stance on NATO collapse 2026: The Hostile Symbiosis

On the surface, Beijing has long viewed the alliance as a Cold War relic. Since 2019, when China was first mentioned in a NATO declaration, the narrative has shifted toward open hostility. The 2022 Strategic Concept even labeled China a 'challenge.' However, a total disintegration of the alliance doesn't necessarily serve Xi Jinping's long-term goals.

According to The Diplomat, NATO acts as a vital deterrent against a broader Russian offensive in Europe. If the alliance vanishes, Russia might gain a free hand in Central Europe, risking a global nuclear crisis. For China, a destabilized European market is a nightmare. They need that market to absorb their massive industrial overcapacity.

The Benefit of Internal Friction

It's not just about security. China benefits from the current divisions within the alliance. While Washington pushes for a harder line against Beijing, many European allies are reluctant to sacrifice their economic ties. This internal tug-of-war prevents a unified Western front, giving China significant diplomatic leverage.