China Taps the Brakes on Steel Exports, Signaling Move to Ease Trade Friction

China has announced it will implement an export licensing system for around 300 steel products starting January 1. While technical on its face, the move is being interpreted as a clear signal that Beijing is proactively trying to manage a significant source of trade friction with its crucial emerging market partners.

The policy's intent becomes clearer in the broader context of China's shifting trade landscape this year. Amid rising global protectionism, China’s export sector has shown remarkable resilience. Even as shipments to its largest market, the United States, dropped by 18.3% year-on-year in the first 11 months, China’s overall exports still managed to grow by 6.2%.

This resilience is partly due to strong performance in high-tech exports like EVs, batteries, and solar equipment. But just as critical, according to analysis from the South China Morning Post, has been a deliberate pivot to emerging markets—especially in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America—where trade barriers are lower and demand is growing. These markets are increasingly vital for keeping China's export engine running.

Yet these new relationships are becoming delicate. While most developing economies haven't adopted an openly adversarial stance, trade frictions are accumulating, with steel emerging as the most visible flashpoint.

From early last year through September this year, China faced 54 trade remedy cases targeting its steel exports—more than in the previous five years combined. Last year alone saw countries like Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey impose new anti-dumping duties. This year, Vietnam and Malaysia, China's largest and third-largest trading partners among developing countries, followed suit. Mexico also recently introduced tariffs of up to 50% on steel imports from several Asian countries, including China.