As Trump Pushes Allies Away, China Steps In

In just 28 days this year, Beijing has welcomed six Western leaders to China. President Xi Jinping's guest list reads like a who's who of America's traditional allies: South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, Irish leader Micheal Martin, and this week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is expected to visit in late February.

Here's what makes this diplomatic parade remarkable: five of these leaders represent countries bound by military treaties with the United States. Yet all have been battered over the past year by Trump's "reciprocal" trade tariffs and additional duties on steel, aluminum, and auto parts.

The Trump Factor

The breaking point came this month when Canada, Finland, Germany, and the UK found themselves in a NATO standoff with Trump over his desire to annex Greenland. Trump threatened additional tariffs on eight European countries he claimed were standing in his way. Though he later backed down, the damage to alliance trust was done.

Mark Carney didn't mince words at the World Economic Forum in Davos, telling world leaders there had been a "rupture in the world order." Back home, he told Canada's House of Commons that "almost nothing was normal now" in the US.

Carney's Beijing visit—the first by a Canadian PM since Justin Trudeau in 2017—yielded immediate results: a deal easing tariffs on Canadian agricultural exports. Trump's response was swift and brutal, threatening 100% trade tariffs on Canada if the deal proceeds. "Canada cannot become a 'Drop Off Port' for China," he fumed on Truth Social.

China's Counter-Pitch

While Trump boasted in Davos that America had become "the hottest country, anywhere in the world" and urged Europe to follow the US lead, Chinese Vice Premier Li Hefeng offered a starkly different vision.

"While economic globalization is not perfect and may cause some problems, we cannot completely reject it and retreat to self-imposed isolation," Li said. "The right approach should be, and can only be, to find solutions together through dialogue."

Li took direct aim at Trump's trade war, criticizing "unilateral acts and trade deals of certain countries" that "clearly violate the fundamental principles of the World Trade Organization and severely impact the global economic and trade order."

Filling the Vacuum

John Gong, a professor at Beijing's University of International Business and Economics, sees the parade of European leaders as evidence that "the Global North is listening too." He points to the UK's approval of a Chinese "mega embassy" in London and progress on the years-long dispute over Chinese electric vehicle exports to Europe as signs of a broader reset.

"A series of events happening in Europe seems to suggest an adjustment of Europe's China policy—for the better, of course—against the backdrop of what is emanating from Washington against Europe," Gong told reporters.

The diplomatic realignment extends beyond trade. Canada's relationship with China had been frozen since 2018 when Ottawa arrested Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou at US request, leading Beijing to detain two Canadians in apparent retaliation. Carney's visit officially thawed those relations.

The Limits of China's Appeal

Yet China's charm offensive faces significant headwinds. The country's massive $1.2 trillion trade surplus last year has alarmed even potential partners. French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking in Davos, welcomed Chinese investment but rejected China's "massive excess capacities and distortive practices" in the form of export dumping.

Hanscom Smith, a former US diplomat now at Yale's Jackson School of International Affairs, cautions against viewing this as a simple zero-sum game. "When the United States becomes more transactional, that creates a vacuum, and it's not clear the extent to which China or Russia, or any other power, is going to be able to fill the void," he said. "Many countries want to have a good relationship with both the United States and China, and don't want to choose."

Li tried to address trade concerns head-on in his Davos speech: "We never seek trade surplus; on top of being the world's factory, we hope to be the world's market too. However, in many cases, when China wants to buy, others don't want to sell."